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Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Price Outlook Neutral, Hoping for FOMC Guidance

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Price Outlook Neutral, Hoping for FOMC Guidance

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

Fundamental Euro Forecast: Neutral

  • For EUR/USD traders, the start of the coming week will be spent waiting for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision Wednesday, its economic projections and press conference.
  • The currency pair is unlikely to move far as traders hope for guidance on monetary policy by the Fed, and chances are it won’t move far afterwards when those hopes are dashed.

EUS/USD on hold ahead of FOMC meeting

The coming week will be dominated by hopes for guidance on US monetary policy Wednesday by the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, just as the past week was dominated by Thursday’s US inflation data and the latest meeting of the European Central Bank.

That means little movement can be expected in EUR/USD before the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy announcements, economic projections and press conference. Moreover, the Fed meeting may well have as little impact as the ECB and inflation numbers did, suggesting little movement in the pair throughout the week.

Indeed, just as some in the markets were disappointed not to hear any hints on when the ECB will begin tapering its various monetary-stimulus programs, the Fed could be equally disappointing and traders left none the wiser. While nobody expects the FOMC to alter interest rates, a hint that it might taper, or reduce, its current stimulus program at some point in future cannot be ruled out entirely but seems unlikely. And even raised inflation forecasts will have little impact if the increases are described as temporary.

So EUR/USD can be expected to continue to trade sideways as volumes and volatility continue to slow ahead of the Summer lull.

EUR/USD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (January 28 – June 10, 2021)


Source: IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

Week ahead: Eurozone inflation data

On the data front this coming week, there is little to stimulate business. Monday’s Eurozone industrial production data and Tuesday’s trade figures are for April so too historic to be of much interest. That leaves inflation figures for Germany Tuesday and the Eurozone Thursday as the statistical highlights of the week. However, as these are final numbers for May they too are not expected to have much impact.

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst

Feel free to contact me on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.