News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from here: https://t.co/vGx8HCagF5 https://t.co/qnQ8Cx0DKv
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/RJLpBgS43V
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/6GrWzkOouM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/lIUxpfSem3
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/8kBulRFd6l
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/6u52PuzIaY
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/rHDy0XNZjQ
  • (Weekly Outlook) Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Divergence With Wall Street Risks Continuing #AUD $AUDUSD #Fed #Stocks https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/aud/2021/06/12/Australian-Dollar-Outlook-AUDUSD-Divergence-With-Wall-Street-Risks-Continuing.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/ryxG0fHmzd
  • The US Dollar steadied against most ASEAN currencies this past week. Key support levels remain in play looking at USD/SGD, USD/THB and USD/PHP. USD/IDR may rise with a new trendline. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/bpr5ZlKIcE https://t.co/0pskmzXZHi
  • EUR/USD has been looking toppy since late May as bearish technical signals played out. But, rising Euro short bets from retail traders hint that the currency may hold its footing. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/fAZijmQVqh https://t.co/pXICvFE007
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Outlook Tilted to the Downside in Week Ahead

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Outlook Tilted to the Downside in Week Ahead

Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

Fundamental Euro Forecast: Bearish

  • Renewed optimism about the EU economy and its Covid-19 vaccination program has lifted EUR/USD in recent days.
  • However, the EU economy is still underperforming and doubts about the AstraZeneca vaccine may reduce the number of people agreeing to have the jab.
  • That suggests that once the current bout of profit-taking and short-covering has ended, EUR/USD may well head lower again.
Advertisement

Euro price at risk of further falls

Growing optimism about an EU economic recovery has lifted EUR/USD in recent days, reducing the losses suffered since the start of this year. For some analysts, the advance suggests that a new trend higher is now in place. There are, however, grounds for caution.

First, the economic recovery is based on optimism that the EU’s Covid-19 vaccination program has now picked up after a slow start. Note, though, that many EU citizens are still wary of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine even though the European Medicines Agency said last week that “the overall benefits of the vaccine in preventing COVID-19 outweigh the risks of side effects.

There have also been reports of delays to supplies of the Moderna vaccine to Germany, although that has been denied by the company.

If take-up is indeed low, that would hinder an economic recovery that is anyway expected to be relatively weak. The International Monetary Fund forecast last week that growth in the Eurozone would be lower this year than in either the US or the UK, and that is bound to have an impact on both EUR/USD and EUR/GBP.

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Outlook Tilted to the Downside in Week Ahead

Against this background, it is possible that EUR/USD has run ahead of itself, with the advance representing just profit-taking and short-covering after the previous slide, and that once the position-squaring is over EUR/USD will resume its path downwards.

EUR/USD Price Chart, Four-Hour Timeframe (January 4 – April 8, 2021)

EUR/USD Chart

Source: IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

ZEW Highlight in Week Ahead

Turning to the economic data in the week ahead, the only release of note is the ZEW indicator of German economic sentiment, which is expected to rise to 79.1 from 76.6. Otherwise, Eurozone retail sales, industrial production and final inflation figures are unlikely to interest the markets.

Check out one of our top trading opportunities for Q2: short EUR/JPY

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst

Feel free to contact me on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES