We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The latest UK General Election opinion polls continue to show the Conservative Party holding a strong lead over Labour and point to Boris Johnson winning a working majority in Parliament. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/qF04EOUWkI https://t.co/LNl4bXbnpp
  • Recent polls have put Conservatives ahead of Labour and given a boost to $GBP. Get your #Brexit update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/l2n53C0cYY https://t.co/oTWfXkaDDt
  • What are the truths and myths of #forex trading? Find out from @DailyFX analysts here: https://t.co/uF75VPzstr #FOMOintrading https://t.co/xeromAGqqx
  • Macro data from around the world have long attested to the urgent need for a trade settlement between the US and China. Increasingly the corporate numbers are saying the same. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/Qon7QUO80c https://t.co/rCOG78QQ2M
  • #Gold prices may fall while the US Dollar gains even as economic policies championed by the Trump administration invite inflation. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/4lHhHsby56 $XAUUSD https://t.co/JmZxckVHdS
  • Cable (GBP/USD) remains just off its seven-month high print around 1.3165 as traders start to move to the side lines ahead of next Thursday’s General Election vote. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/CpCh13J9ZH #Brexit https://t.co/PIh6WUqbsK
  • (Weekly Technical Outlook) GBP/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/JPY, GBP/CAD Outlook as UK Election Looms $GBPUSD $EURGBP $GBPJPY #UKelection2019 - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/12/07/GBPUSD-EURGBP-GBPJPY-GBPCAD-Outlook-as-UK-Election-Looms.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/iuILHYczJ7
  • Why do you require consistency in trading and why does it matter? Find out: https://t.co/WlEFlluGfZ #tradingstyle https://t.co/TkMtJQKatx
  • By issuing debt denominated in $USD, China is making a long-term bet that it will be cheaper to pay back its loans over time in the US Dollar; it believes the value of the US Dollar will fall. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/5GO9UrvO4y https://t.co/xV9urXXf48
  • What are some risk trading management techniques? Find out: https://t.co/RShdlDz9RA #tradingstyle https://t.co/M3ASPIHAep
Gold Prices Susceptible to Upbeat US Data Despite Threat of Trade War

Gold Prices Susceptible to Upbeat US Data Despite Threat of Trade War

2019-05-11 22:00:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:
gold

Gold Price Talking Points

Gold prices remain little changed even though the Trump administration boosts tariffs on Chinese goods, and the current environment may continue to drag on the price of bullion as the Federal Reserve remains in no rush to alter the outlook for monetary policy.

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Bearish

Gold managed to clear the monthly opening range as President Donald Trump insists that the administration is ‘very happy with over $100 Billion a year in Tariffs filling U.S. coffers,’ and the lingering threat of a trade war may keep the precious metal afloat as China pledges to retaliate the new measures.

It remains to be seen if the Federal Reserve will respond to the change in U.S. trade policy as the economic docket is anticipated to show Retail Sales climbing 0.2% in April, with the U. of Michigan Confidence survey anticipated to increase to 97.9 in May from 97.2 the month prior.

Looking for a technical perspective on gold? Check out the Weekly Gold Technical Forecast.

gold

Little to no evidence of a looming recession may push the Federal Reserve to further normalize monetary policy as ‘incoming data since our last meeting in March have been broadly in line with our expectations,’ and the central bank may sound more hawkish over the coming months as the 'baseline view remains that, with a strong job market and continued growth, inflation will return to 2 percent over time.’

In turn, Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. may continue to project a longer-run interest rate of 2.50% to 2.75% as the central bank is slated to update the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) at the next quarterly meeting in June, and the narrowing scope for a change in regime may dampen the appeal of gold especially as the central bank remains confident in achieving the dual mandate for monetary policy.

With that said, there appears to be a broader shift in market behavior as the price for bullion snaps the opening range for 2019, and the precious metal may continue to give back the advance from the 2018-low ($1160) as a head-and-shoulders formation remains in play.

Gold Price Daily Chart

gold

The broader outlook for gold remains mired by the head-and-shoulders formation amid the break of neckline support, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlighting a similar dynamic as it tracks the bearish trends from earlier this year.

However, the lack of momentum to clear the April-low ($1266) along with the failure to retain the monthly opening range may generate a larger rebound in gold, with a break/close above $1288 (23.6% expansion) opening up the Fibonacci overlap around $1298 (23.6% retracement) to $1302 (50% retracement).

As a result, need a break of the April-low ($1266) to bring the downside targets on the radar, with the first area of interest coming in around $1260 (23.6% expansion) followed by the overlap around $1249 (50% retracement) to $1250 (38.2% retracement).

Additional Trading Resources

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for Gold

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

AUD Forecast: Australian Dollar Could Get Some Respite If Employment Keeps Revving

Crude Oil Forecast: Prices Under Pressure From Souring Global Sentiment

USD Forecast: Torn Between S&P 500 Outlook, Dovish Fed as US Dollar Ranges

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.