We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides Download
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • We are cognisant of the fact that with month-end looming, given the outperformance in bonds over equities (US bonds outperforming S&P 500 by over 6%). Where is the market heading while #coronavirus continues to spark panic. Find out from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/NZN1yuel13 https://t.co/n5GrdImX3B
  • US 7-Year Notes Draw 1.247% Primary Dealers Awarded: 23.9% Indirect Bidders Accepted: 63.0% Direct Bidders Accepted: 13.1% B/C Ratio: 2.49
  • some tech issues today so may be intermittent interruptions. but given vol the show must go on. webinar starts right now https://www.dailyfx.com/webinars/643096611
  • Right now at the White House @RampCapitalLLC https://t.co/LXGGmrXWvM
  • Fed's Evans: - Have more capacity for accommodation if necessary - Policy action change is premature until more data gathered - Monitoring impact from virus closely $DXY $SPX
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.07%, while traders in USD/CAD are at opposite extremes with 68.92%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/1ZBu6ad3CP
  • spoooz 90 handles off the lows... think this report his helping out https://t.co/CjF9SBeoN8 https://t.co/DPFlJGydyv
  • The #Dow Jones is sitting on the 200-day and June 2019 slope, a break through there might not extend to this point, but the next level of price support is near the 25,700/300-area.Get your #equities technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/VeB7yZTFAE https://t.co/JbwyWK7ngZ
  • Commodities Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.20% Silver: -0.97% Oil - US Crude: -2.79% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/aDLxbVyb1U
  • Italy Emergency Chief says 650 coronavirus cases in country - BBG
USDCAD: US Dollar Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

USDCAD: US Dollar Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

2011-10-06 17:55:00
Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist, David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist, and Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist,

Monthly Chart

US_Dollar_Canadian_Dollar_Exchange_Rate_Forecast_body_EUR10.png, USDCAD: US Dollar Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

Prepared by Joel Kruger

Inability to break to fresh record lows below 0.9000 in 2011 has opened the door for a more meaningful bullish reversal, with the market now carving out what we believe to be a significant longer-term base. From here, any setbacks should be well supported by parity, with a fresh higher low sought out by the psychological barrier ahead of the next major upside extension towards 1.1000-1.1500 further up.

US Dollar / Canadian DollarInterest Rate Forecast

Currency, Central Bank

US Dollar, US Federal Reserve

Canadian Dollar, Bank of Canada

Net USDCAD Spread


1-Year Expectations(Basis Points)





Yield in 1 Year(Percent)





US_Dollar_Canadian_Dollar_Exchange_Rate_Forecast_body_Picture_6.png, USDCAD: US Dollar Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar Interest Rate Trading Bias: Bullish

A significant turn lower in Canadian interest rate forecasts have forced similarly sharp Canadian Dollar weakness (USDCAD strength). Yet the biggest mover remains broader trends in commodity prices—particularly as Crude Oil futures see significant volatility through recent trading.

According to our correlation studies, the short-term link between the NYMEX WTI Crude oil contract and the USDCAD trades near record strength. A recent breakdown in commodity prices offers little support for the Canadian currencies. Generally dour Bank of Canada expectations likewise show the currency will receive little yield-link support.

Watch future Bank of Canada interest rate decisions, CPI data, and the price of Crude Oil to guide Canadian Dollar price action through the foreseeable future.

US Dollar / Canadian Dollar Valuation Forecast

USDCAD Valuation Forecast: Bullish

US_Dollar_Canadian_Dollar_Exchange_Rate_Forecast_body_Picture_7.png, USDCAD: US Dollar Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

Source: Bloomberg

The disparity between USDCAD spot and PPP-implied exchange rates has narrowed from the extremes but remains very significant at over 1500 pips. An intimate inverse correlation with the S&P 500 points to more of the same as risk aversion continues to grip financial markets, with sentiment battered by the lingering EU debt crisis and a slowing global recovery. The sharp slide in Bank of Canada rate hike expectations is also not dong the Loonie any favors, reinforcing the likelihood of an upside scenario in the weeks ahead.

What is Purchasing Power Parity?

One of the oldest and most basic fundamental approaches to determining the “fair” exchange rate of one currency to another relies on the concept of Purchasing Power Parity. This approach says that an identical product should cost the same from one country to another, with the only difference in the price tag accounted for by the exchange rate. For example, if a pencil costs €1 in Europe and $1.20 in the US, the “fair” EURUSD exchange rate should be 1.20. For our purposes, we will use the PPP values provided annually by Bloomberg. We compare these values to current market rates to determine how much each currency is under- or over-valued against the US Dollar.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.