We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • $USDCAD is testing slope support into the close of the week with the immediate short bias at risk while above 1.3134/51. Get your USD/CAD technical analysis from @MBForex here:https://t.co/eE9yrNEU80 https://t.co/mszY7ouYRF
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.0966 S2: 1.1041 S1: 1.1085 R1: 1.116 R2: 1.119 R3: 1.1264 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • The British Pound’s relief rally may still have some room to run: volatility in the $GBP has dropped back to levels typically associated with periods of ‘positive developments’ in the #Brexit process. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/uzXRd8y4ck https://t.co/Nxf6opYgLd
  • Forex Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 1.31% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.12% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.09% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.09% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.48% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/z0x9cPG1TN
  • Commodities Update: As of 21:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.40% Silver: 0.09% Oil - US Crude: -0.47% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/fpuNos9jTO
  • RT @bbands: Most crypto currencies are at or near Bollinger Band Squeeze levels. Time to pay attention.
  • Spot FX Update: $EUR 1.1119 $JPY 109.3505 $GBP 1.3337 $CAD 1.3182 $CHF 0.9842
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.07%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 78.85%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/rBitc06izt
  • Stocks in the #Dow Jones and S&P 500 are soaring alongside the Chinese Yuan as Beijing confirms trade negotiators have reached a partial deal in text with Washington. Get your market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/v8Dy0Es2MY https://t.co/1f6xgxkXK0
  • Poll: Looking ahead to these final weeks of 2019, has the announced US-China phase 1 'deal' and UK election laying a clearer path for Brexit set global markets back on a course for sustained risk appetite (continued S&P 500 climb)?
GBPUSD: British Pound US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

GBPUSD: British Pound US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

2011-04-08 19:08:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, Ilya Spivak,
Share:

British Pound / US Dollar Monthly Technical Forecast

Weekly Chart

GBPUSD_British_Pound_US_Dollar_Exchange_Rate_Forecast_body_gbpusd.png, GBPUSD: British Pound US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

Prepared by Jamie Saettele

While a triangle may still be unfolding from the 2009 low in the GBPUSD, it makes sense to consider a more bullish alternative given the break higher in the EURUSD. Under the proposed, the GBPUSD is working higher in a C wave that will eventually exceed 17042. Objectives are the bottom of congestion from 2008 at 17442 (intersects with channel line at end of June) and 17771 (100% extension). Near term, the 2010 high at 16457 should provoke a reaction. 16250 and 16175 are supports. The bullish outlook is valid as long as price is above 15935.

British Pound / US Dollar Valuation Forecast

GBPUSD Valuation Forecast: Bearish

GBPUSD_British_Pound_US_Dollar_Exchange_Rate_Forecast_body_04062011_GBP.png, GBPUSD: British Pound US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

The disparity between British Pound spot and its PPP-implied exchange rate widened in March as rate hike expectations for the coming year continued to build. Much will be determined by the first-quarter GDP reading set to print on April 27 after the disappointing Q4 outcome, leading economic data has mostly surprised to the upside since mid-February so tightening speculation is likely to keep the currency well-supported and help widen the valuation gap at least over the coming weeks. Another flare-up of sovereign risk in the Euro Zone would also encourage sterling higher as capital seeks an alternative regional medium of exchange to the single currency. On balance, while current positioning is de-facto bearish, sellers would be prudent to wait for a more attractive opportunity to enter short.

What is Purchasing Power Parity?

One of the oldest and most basic fundamental approaches to determining the “fair” exchange rate of one currency to another relies on the concept of Purchasing Power Parity. This approach says that an identical product should cost the same from one country to another, with the only difference in the price tag accounted for by the exchange rate. For example, if a pencil costs €1 in Europe and $1.20 in the US, the “fair” EURUSD exchange rate should be 1.20. For our purposes, we will use the PPP values provided annually by Bloomberg. We compare these values to current market rates to determine how much each currency is under- or over-valued against the US Dollar.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.