We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • The MACD is often used with its default setting when entering trades. However, this versatile indicator can be customized to assist traders in exiting trades too. Learn how to better incorporate the MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/HnY7gzsI2q https://t.co/5F1DSvAXyy
  • What are some factors affecting $GBP as we head into 2020, quarter one? Download your Sterling fundamental forecast with @nickcawley1 here to find out: https://t.co/YfDSYSATK9 https://t.co/ANFLIuDY4J
  • Trading Global Markets new #podcast features @DailyFX Anlayst @PeterHanksFX , who discusses what assets would benefit in the next #recession. Tune into this new podcast episode hosted by @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/llKzvZGDpQ
  • The #Euro remains weak against a range of currencies and any move higher is struggling to gain traction as the single currency continues to be sold-off. Get your #EUR technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/9B2m0kmd4d https://t.co/ZENxpC59mP
  • The Indian Rupee 2020 outlook is bearish as India faces stagflation risk amid rising onion and crude oil prices. $USDINR may rise in the medium-term as the RBI defers hiking rates. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/lRrlZjAQDw https://t.co/mFv1EOYMjG
  • The $GBP may be on the cusp resuming a 12-year downtrend against the US Dollar as signs of topping emerge at pivotal chart resistance. Get oyur market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/9rM3OjWmBA https://t.co/sUWcSFruHw
  • The $NZD may be on average at risk to further losses against its major counterparts such as the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. Where to for NZD/USD and NZD/JPY from here? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/OFjePKYdCb https://t.co/eo1c6QAVd8
  • $AUDJPY technical positioning hints prices may be on cusp of turning lower after a late-2019 bounce, recoupling with a dovish RBA policy outlook. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/z84Y0V0ZtH https://t.co/wcIGO1emDw
  • The Japanese Yen has faded into 2020 as market risk appetite has held up and hit demand for haven assets. $USDJPY now challenges a key medium-term downtrend, but hasn’t topped it yet.Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/4X6vgCgkB7 https://t.co/FfCkGhtHsm
  • The $USD may fall against the Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone if commentary from officials at the Davos forum uplift market mood and pressure haven-linked currencies. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/SZAG0yMu3d https://t.co/cBZj5tC0Ny
EURUSD: Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

EURUSD: Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

2011-03-09 14:48:00
Joel Kruger, David Rodriguez, Ilya Spivak,

Euro/US Dollar Monthly Technical Forecast

Weekly Chart

EURUSD_Euro_US_Dollar_Exchange_Rate_Forecast_body_eur.png, EURUSD: Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

Prepared by Joel Kruger

The market has been well bid over the past several weeks with the rally now looking to mount an assault on the critical medium-term highs from November 2010 at 1.4280. Look for a weekly close back above 1.4000 to reaffirm bullish outlook and accelerate towards 1.4280, while any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.3500. Ultimately, only a weekly close back below 1.3425 negates bullish momentum and gives reason for pause.

Euro / US Dollar Interest Rate Forecast

Currency, Central Bank

Euro,European Central Bank

US Dollar, US Federal Reserve

Net EURUSD Spread


1-Year Expectations(Basis Points)





Yield in 1 Year(Percent)





EURUSD_Euro_US_Dollar_Exchange_Rate_Forecast_body_Picture_2.png, EURUSD: Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

An important improvement in European interest rate expectations led to a similarly sharp Euro rally, and recent interest rate trends support the case for further EURUSD gains. Yet a noteworthy deterioration in European fiscal bond yield spreads warn that fundamentals are far from straightforward in the single currency block. ECB President Jean Claude Trichet surprised markets in claiming that the bank expressed “strong vigilance” on price risk—a thinly-veiled declaration that the bank was likely to raise rates at its upcoming meeting. Overnight Index Swaps now price in a cumulative 121 basis points of ECB rate hikes in the coming 12 months—the largest such sum in at least five years.

Yet further turmoil in euro zone sovereign debt markets cannot be dismissed, and strong interest rate forecasts hardly guarantee continued euro gains. The spread between the benchmark 10-Year Portuguese Government Bond and the equivalent German issue currently stands at a record wide and underlines current market stress. The Euro has stood firm despite clear concerns over periphery debt. Yet one gets the sense that it may only be a matter of time before debt concerns override yield considerations. Significant funding needs mean that Portugal and other at-risk nations must issue further debt through the year. Rising ECB interest rate targets could perversely enhance risks to the single currency.

Euro / US Dollar Valuation Forecast

EURUSD Valuation Forecast: Bearish

EURUSD_Euro_US_Dollar_Exchange_Rate_Forecast_body_03092011_EUR.png, EURUSD: Euro US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

The Euro remains significantly overvalued relative to the US Dollar, with the gap between spot and the PPP-implied fair exchange rate widening through February after rising inflation figures encouraged a materially hawkish shift in ECB rhetoric. Indeed, interest rate futures suggest traders are now pricing in an increase as soon as July. The Euro’s ability to capitalize on rising yields will be directly dependent on EU policymakers’ ability to quash sovereign risk fears however, with the moment of truth coming on March 25 as the region’s leaders meet for a summit that promises to produce a “grand bargain” on dealing with debt-ridden member states. In the meantime, a batch of over $30 billion in expiring periphery debt is set to be rolled over at substantially higher interest rates over the next 30 days, keeping investors on edge and hinting that a period of weakness is likely heading into the end of the month. With that in mind, the path of least resistance over the near term seems to lead downward.

What is Purchasing Power Parity?

One of the oldest and most basic fundamental approaches to determining the “fair” exchange rate of one currency to another relies on the concept of Purchasing Power Parity. This approach says that an identical product should cost the same from one country to another, with the only difference in the price tag accounted for by the exchange rate. For example, if a pencil costs €1 in Europe and $1.20 in the US, the “fair” EURUSD exchange rate should be 1.20. For our purposes, we will use the PPP values provided annually by Bloomberg. We compare these values to current market rates to determine how much each currency is under- or over-valued against the US Dollar.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.