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New Zealand Dollar - US Dollar Technical and Fundamental Forex Forecast for May

New Zealand Dollar - US Dollar Technical and Fundamental Forex Forecast for May

2011-05-12 00:21:00
Joel Kruger, David Rodriguez,
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New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar Monthly Technical Forecast

Weekly Chart

new_zealand_dollar_us_dollar_technical_fundamental_forecast_body_nzd.png, New Zealand Dollar - US Dollar Technical and Fundamental Forex Forecast for May

Prepared by Joel Kruger

Rallies for this pair above 0.8000 have often proven difficult to sustain, and it looks as though we are once again seeing the market falter above 0.8000 following an impressive ten big figure rally in 2011. A key bearish reversal week in early May provides added confirmation for topping bias, and from here, we see the risks for deeper setbacks towards 0.7500 at a minimum, before bulls attempt to reassert. Back above 0.8000 gives reason for concern.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar Interest Rate Forecast

Currency, Central Bank

New Zealand DollarReserve Bank of New Zealand

US Dollar, US Federal Reserve

Net NZDUSD Spread

Signal

1-Year Expectations(Basis Points)

0

32

(32)

Bearish

Yield in 1 Year(Percent)

2.50

0.57

1.93

Bullish

new_zealand_dollar_us_dollar_technical_fundamental_forecast_body_Picture_4.png, New Zealand Dollar - US Dollar Technical and Fundamental Forex Forecast for May

Natural disaster in New Zealand has forced a substantial correction in interest rate forecasts and commensurate declines in the New Zealand currency. Markets now predict that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will leave interest rates unchanged in the coming twelve months. Though the US Federal Reserve is hardly expected to raise rates aggressively, interest rate expectation spreads actually favor the downtrodden USD.

The New Zealand Dollar has lost yield-based support and continues to come off of peaks seen through recent trade. Continued deterioration in its interest rate advantage versus major counterparts could force continued losses.

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist and Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist for http://www.DailyFX.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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