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Australian Dollar - US Dollar Technical and Fundamental Forex Forecast for May

Australian Dollar - US Dollar Technical and Fundamental Forex Forecast for May

2011-05-12 00:21:00
Joel Kruger, David Rodriguez,
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Australian Dollar/US Dollar Monthly Technical Forecast

Weekly Chart

australian_dollar_us_dollar_technical_fundamental_forecast_body_aud.png, Australian Dollar - US Dollar Technical and Fundamental Forex Forecast for May

Prepared by Joel Kruger

There is no denying the intensity of this uptrend which remains firmly intact as the market posts fresh post-float record highs above 1.1000. However, there are signs of a shorter-term top forming, and given the overextended technical readings, we would not at all be surprised to see a more significant corrective pullback towards previous resistance now turned support in the 1.0200’s before even considering fresh upside. A bearish outside week in early May confirms corrective bias.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar Interest Rate Forecast

Currency, Central Bank

Australian Dollar,Reserve Bank of Australia

US Dollar, US Federal Reserve

Net AUDUSD Spread

Signal

1-Year Expectations(Basis Points)

0

32

(32)

Bearish

Yield in 1 Year(Percent)

4.75

0.57

4.18

Bullish

australian_dollar_us_dollar_technical_fundamental_forecast_body_Picture_4.png, Australian Dollar - US Dollar Technical and Fundamental Forex Forecast for May

The Australian Dollar continues to benefit from the highest short-term interest rate of any G10 currency, and effectively neutral forecasts for further interest rate hikes have had seemingly little effect on the high-flying AUDUSD. Indeed, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to leave interest rates unchanged through the coming 12 months. Said figure is less than the similarly tepid expectations for the US Federal Reserve. Of course, the AUD would still boast an impressive 445bp short-term yield advantage over its US namesake.

Interest rate expectations remain supportive of the AUDUSD, and it would take a substantial correction in either RBA or Fed rate forecasts to shift momentum in the US Dollar’s favor.

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist and Joel Kruger, Technical Strategist for http://www.DailyFX.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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