We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Australian Dollar and New Zealand Dollar tend to rise with stocks. They have recently fallen despite gains in the #SP500. What does this mean for $AUDUSD and $NZDUSD ahead? #AUD #NZD #RBA #RBNZ - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/01/17/AUDUSD-NZDUSD-Outlook-Looks-Past-Stocks-to-Rate-Cut-Bets.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/ddf2fV7Kyl
  • A few snippets from today's commentary. Check out the link below for the full story (via @DailyFX). https://t.co/I31tuq764r https://t.co/x0BaiOFA1P
  • Have you joined @DailyFX @facebook group yet? Discuss your #forex strategies and brush up on your skills with us here: https://t.co/jtY1G7g8yx https://t.co/e2YrN3dBrl
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 98.00%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 79.59%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/UL7hqSD2Ki
  • US Dollar Forecast: $USD Lacking Impetus Ahead of Consumer Sentiment #Forex traders shift focus away from US-China trade deal headlines - perhaps toward the monthly release of #ConsumerSentiment data for volatility and clues on the Greenback's next move https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2020/01/16/us-dollar-forecast-usd-lacking-impetus-ahead-of-consumer-sentiment.html
  • Forex Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.11% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.05% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.06% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Kxcb9EtIWb
  • Indices Update: As of 05:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.45% France 40: 0.26% Wall Street: 0.07% US 500: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/I5YIsKQAog
  • 🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV), Actual: 1.3% Expected: 1.0% Previous: -5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
  • The $JPY has weakened as a bounce-back in risk appetite saps haven-asset demand. However, the old uptrend line still provides clear resistance. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX HERE:https://t.co/IMhgQ9jbF9 https://t.co/I7087olftk
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (NOV) due at 04:30 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.0% Previous: -4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-01-17
AUDUSD: Australian Dollar US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

AUDUSD: Australian Dollar US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

2011-03-09 15:21:00
Joel Kruger, David Rodriguez, Ilya Spivak,

Australian Dollar / US Dollar MonthlyTechnical Forecast

Weekly Chart

AUDUSD_Australian_Dollar_US_Dollar_Exchange_Rate_Forecast_body_aud2.png, AUDUSD: Australian Dollar US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

Prepared by Joel Kruger

Although medium-term setbacks have stalled out for now ahead of 0.9800, we continue to favor risks for additional downside and like the idea of selling into current rallies. Ultimately, we see the market in the process of carving out a major top and any rallies from here should be well capped below 1.0200 on a weekly close basis. Only back above 1.0200 gives reason for concern, while a weekly close below 0.9800 should accelerate to 0.9535 and below. We rarely incorporate wave counts into our analysis but we also can not ignore a very pretty count which suggests that we are in the process of completing the final wave of a major up-trend. We credit on this count to colleague Jamie Saettele.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar Interest Rate Forecast

Currency, Central Bank

Australian Dollar,Reserve Bank of Australia

US Dollar, US Federal Reserve

Net AUDUSD Spread


1-Year Expectations(Basis Points)





Yield in 1 Year(Percent)





AUDUSD_Australian_Dollar_US_Dollar_Exchange_Rate_Forecast_body_Picture_2.png, AUDUSD: Australian Dollar US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

The Australian Dollar continues to benefit from the highest short-term interest rate of any G10 currency, and relatively muted forecasts for further interest rate hikes have had seemingly little effect on the high-flying AUDUSD. Indeed, the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates by a relatively modest 30 basis points through the coming 12 months. Such a sum is actually less than the similarly tepid expectations for the US Federal Reserve. Of course, the AUD would still boast an impressive 445bp short-term yield advantage over its US namesake.

Interest rate expectations remain supportive of the AUDUSD, and it would take a substantial correction in either RBA or Fed rate forecasts to shift momentum in the US Dollar’s favor.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar Valuation Forecast

AUDUSD Valuation Forecast: Bearish

AUDUSD_Australian_Dollar_US_Dollar_Exchange_Rate_Forecast_body_03092011_AUD.png, AUDUSD: Australian Dollar US Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast

The Australian Dollar remains the most overvalued currency against its US counterpart, trading at a staggering 31.8 percent premium to its PPP-implied fair value. However, the fuel behind such performance came from an aggressively hawkish RBA, which now has clearly shifted gears into neutral. This seems to finally open the door for a significant reversal, with priced-in monetary policy expectations now pointing to a narrowing of yield differentials in favor of the greenback over the coming year. The makings of a slowdown in China – Australia’s top trading partner – and lingering worries about the Euro Zone debt crisis as well as turmoil in the Middle East add to downward pressure on the still sentiment-sensitive currency. While confirmation of a top remains elusive, a very attractive selling opportunity looks to be just around the corner.

What is Purchasing Power Parity?

One of the oldest and most basic fundamental approaches to determining the “fair” exchange rate of one currency to another relies on the concept of Purchasing Power Parity. This approach says that an identical product should cost the same from one country to another, with the only difference in the price tag accounted for by the exchange rate. For example, if a pencil costs €1 in Europe and $1.20 in the US, the “fair” EURUSD exchange rate should be 1.20. For our purposes, we will use the PPP values provided annually by Bloomberg. We compare these values to current market rates to determine how much each currency is under- or over-valued against the US Dollar.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.