News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇷🇺 CBR Press Conference due at 12:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-23
  • ECB said to expect difficult June decision on bond-buying pace, ECB views said to differ on economic optimism and need for caution - ECB sources $EUR
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.49%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 68.53%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/coX4Ww1pRP
  • 🇷🇺 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 5% Expected: 4.75% Previous: 4.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-23
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.50% Gold: 0.13% Silver: -0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/DyTN6Z1PLU
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.34% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.34% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.33% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.18% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.15% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/JKnNu9wyXr
  • Heads Up:🇷🇺 Interest Rate Decision due at 10:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 4.75% Previous: 4.5% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-23
  • ECB's De Cos - Including transient and mild inflation overshoots in monetary policy strategy is expected to have only a minor impact on inflation expectations - A point plan of exactly 2% would be a reasonable option (current inflation guidance = below, but close to 2%)
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.20% Wall Street: 0.13% France 40: -0.26% Germany 30: -0.31% FTSE 100: -0.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/OEqPvEZrZu
  • 🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Flash (APR) Actual: 60.7 Expected: 59 Previous: 58.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-23
Euro H&S Top in Focus Ahead of ECB Meeting- More Easing on Tap

Euro H&S Top in Focus Ahead of ECB Meeting- More Easing on Tap

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points

  • Euro: Unemployment Hits Record-High, Inflation Slows Further
  • British Pound: U.K. Mortgage Apps Top Forecast, BoE Curbs Inflation Outlook

Euro: Unemployment Hits Record-High, Inflation Slows Further

The Euro tumbled to 1.3052 as the jobless rate in the monetary union climbed to a fresh record-high of 12.1% in March, while the headline reading for inflation slipped to an annualized rate of 1.2% during the month of April to mark the slowest pace of growth since February 2010.

Moreover, unemployment in Germany increased another 4K in April after expanding a revised 12K the month prior, and we may see the European Central Bank (ECB) carry out its easing cycle throughout 2013 as the region struggles to return to growth.

As the economic downturn threatens price stability, there’s growing bets that ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a rate cut at the May 2 meeting, but the Governing Council may have little choice but to introduce more non-standard measures over the coming months as the governments operating under the single currency scale back their push for austerity. Even if the ECB refrains from pushing the benchmark interest rate to a fresh record-low, the policy statement may instill a bearish outlook for the euro should the central bank strike a highly dovish tone for monetary policy.

Although the Cypriot parliament is expected to approve the EUR 10B bailout later today, the ongoing turmoil in the periphery countries should continue to dampen the appeal of the single currency, and the EURUSD may fail to maintain the rebound from earlier this month as the fundamental outlook for the euro-area turns increasingly bleak.

As the EURUSD remains capped by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.3120, the ECB rate decision may serve as the fundamental catalyst to put the head-and-shoulders reversal into motion, and the single currency remains poised to face additional headwinds over the near to medium-term as European officials retain a reactionary approach in addressing the risks surrounding the region.

British Pound: U.K. Mortgage Apps Top Forecast, BoE Curbs Inflation Outlook

The British Pound struggled to maintain the overnight advance to 1.5516 even as U.K. Mortgage Approvals increased an annualized 53.5K in March amid forecasts for a 52.7K print, and we may see the sterling continue to consolidate ahead of the next Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision on May 9 as the central bank keeps the door open to expand the balance sheet further.

Indeed, BoE board member David Miles struck a rather dovish tone for monetary policy as he expects ‘inflation will be quite close to 2%’ target in the year ahead, while Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne set the first remit for the central bank’s Financial Policy Committee as the group takes on new responsibilities following the financial crisis.

In an official statement, Mr. Osborne said ‘the Financial Policy Committee is now charged with identifying, monitoring and addressing risks to the financial system as a whole,’ and went onto say that ‘it is particularly important at this stage of the cycle that the committee takes into account, and gives due weight to, the impact of its action on the near-term economic recovery’ as the region managed to avoid a triple-dip recession.

As the U.K. faces a slow but sustainable recovery, we should see the BoE stick to the sidelines for most of 2013, but the central bank may start to discuss a tentative exit strategy later this year amid the stickiness in inflation.

Indeed, we’re still bullish on the GBPUSD as it maintains the upward trending channel carried over from the previous year, but the pair looks poised for a near-term correction as it falls back from trendline resistance.

FX Upcoming

Currency

GMT

EDT

Release

Expected

Prior

USD

14:00

10:00

Pending Home Sales (MoM) (MAR)

1.0%

-0.4%

USD

14:00

10:00

Pending Home Sales (YoY) (MAR)

5.0%

USD

14:30

10:30

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (APR)

7.4

NZD

22:45

18:45

Building Permits (MoM) (MAR)

2.0%

1.9%

GBP

23:01

19:01

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (APR)

-26

-26

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

Will the EUR/USD Resume the Downward Trend From 2011? Join us in the Forum

Trading the volatile hours of the US open? Use this app to help find breakouts during these market conditions.

RelatedArticles: Weekly Currency Trading Forecast

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES