We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/yXomAftdv8 https://t.co/wOQAHZVnxB
  • Forex trading, which is the act of exchanging fiat currencies, is thought to be centuries old – dating back to the Babylonian period. Learn about the history of Forex here:https://t.co/ePTJlbUP7c https://t.co/WS2LkCt9gX
  • Two major events will dominate #Euro trading in the coming week: an #ECB meeting on Eurozone monetary policy, followed by an #EU summit to reach agreement on a recovery fund. Get your #currencies update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/wnXjTDizMv https://t.co/tmxDfkgmSv
  • There are many different types of forex orders, which traders use to manage their trades. While these may vary between different brokers, there tends to be several basic FX order types all brokers accept. Learn about different FX order types here: https://t.co/lIJdiz4xSz https://t.co/UQRaKusFP7
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here:https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/nUvvI3WQpx
  • Australian Dollar is up fractionally this week with Aussie stalling just below the yearly range highs. Here are the levels that matter on the $AUDUSD technical chart. Get your #currencies update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/jYzBK1qH4s https://t.co/gYj4tFbsGS
  • What is the road ahead for equities this coming week? Check out my fundamental outlook below! #DowJones #SP500 #DAX30 #FTSE100 https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/2020/07/11/Dow-Jones-SP-500-DAX-30-FTSE-100-Outlook-Stocks-Week-Ahead.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/HjIBDKqwvO
  • #Gold price gains seem to depend on monetary stimulus expansion and may turn lower as contraction of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet underpins the US Dollar. Get your #metals update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/8NHLc8jdhw https://t.co/0YYKXqtY9V
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/OjTZOQEytM https://t.co/DDCWX1In7k
  • The US Dollar is pressured as rising coronavirus cases fail to dent 2021 GDP bets. Could the Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Philippine Peso and Malaysian Ringgit rise? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/u1qhaIGGoC https://t.co/kvFgxQjLb0
Euro Poised for More Losses on Dovish Draghi- Rate Cut Ahead

Euro Poised for More Losses on Dovish Draghi- Rate Cut Ahead

2013-03-06 13:50:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

  • Euro: ECB Meeting Takes Center Stage, Dovish Draghi on Tap
  • British Pound: Remains Oversold, BoE Says FLS Results ‘Disappointing’
  • U.S. Dollar: ADP Employment Tops Forecast, Fed’s Beige Book in Focus

Euro: ECB Meeting Takes Center Stage, Dovish Draghi on Tap

The EURUSD was little changed on Wednesday as the pair held within the previous day’s range, and the single currency should continue to consolidate over the next 24-hours of trading as the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision takes center stage.

Although the ECB is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.75%, the press conference with President Mario Draghi may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the single currency should the central bank head talk up bets for another rate cut. As the deepening recession threatens price stability, Mr. Draghi may show a greater willingness to address the record-high unemployment along with the persistent slack in private sector activity, and we may see the Governing Council lay the ground works to deliver another rate cut as the fundamental outlook for the euro-area turns increasingly bleak.

As the ECB sees a ‘significant’ risk of undershooting the 2% target in the year ahead, the central bank may have little choice but to carry out its easing cycle throughout 2013, and the Governing Council may push back its forecast of seeing the region return to growth as the debt crisis continues to drag on the real economy.

In turn, we are likely to see the governments operating under the single currency become increasingly reliant on monetary support, and the EURUSD remains poised to give back the rebound from back in November amid the deviation in the policy outlook.

Although the relative strength index on the EURUSD continues to flirt with oversold territory, we are still looking for a move back towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2640-50 as the 38.2% Fib (1.3120) appears to be holding up as resistance.

British Pound: Remains Oversold, BoE Says FLS Results ‘Disappointing’

The British Pound pared the advance from earlier this week as Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said that the results of the Funding for Lending Schemeare disappointing,’ and we may see a growing number of central bank officials lean towards more quantitative easing in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery.

Although the FLS ‘has clearly worked in reducing funding costs for banks,’ Mr. King argued that the central bank would not be able to judge the success of the program until it compiles the rest of the data for 2013, but went onto say that ‘the scheme has achieved its basic objectives’ as it continues to work its way through the real economy.

As the relative strength index on the GBPUSD struggles to push back above the 30 figure, dovish comments coming out of the BoE interest rate decision may spark fresh yearly lows in the exchange rate, but we may see the Monetary Policy Committee refrain from releasing a statement as they maintain their current policy.

U.S. Dollar: ADP Employment Tops Forecast, Fed’s Beige Book in Focus

The greenback regained its footing on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) bouncing back from a low of 10,427, and the reserve currency may continue to track higher ahead of the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report as the fundamental outlook for the world’s largest economy improves.

Indeed, the ADP employment report showed another 198K rise in private payrolls amid forecast for a 170K print, and the Fed’s Beige Book on tap for later today may sound more upbeat this time around as the economic recovery gradually gathers pace.

In turn, we should see the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback pick up over the near to medium-term, and the central bank may look to switch gears later this year as the region gets on a more sustainable path.

FX Upcoming

Currency

GMT

EDT

Release

Expected

Prior

CAD

15:00

10:00

Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision

1.00%

1.00%

USD

15:00

10:00

Factory Orders (JAN)

-2.2%

1.8%

CAD

15:00

10:00

Ivey Purchasing Managers Index s.a. (FEB)

58.9

USD

15:30

10:30

DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 1)

1130K

USD

15:30

10:30

DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAR 1)

557K

USD

15:30

10:30

DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAR 1)

-1857K

USD

19:00

14:00

Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

Will the EUR/USD Resume the Downward Trend From 2011? Join us in the Forum

RelatedArticles: Weekly Currency Trading Forecast

New to FX? Watch this Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.