News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • interested to see the responses here $Gold https://t.co/NBz8Jyy1qu
  • Gold prices hit a fresh seven-month low last week, eventually finding Fibonacci support. But with US rates in focus for the Fed on 3-16 - what will happen first?
  • https://t.co/mviHFA68q9
  • #Bitcoin, #Gold, #Dollar, $EURUSD, $AUDUSD and $USDCAD Technical Levels - (Webinar Archive) - https://t.co/YozHhSFHxc
  • Indices Update: As of 17:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 2.39% Wall Street: 2.18% FTSE 100: 0.23% Germany 30: 0.17% France 40: 0.09% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/O0R5hSwfSN
  • #Gold attempted to rebound from multi-month lows today, climbing as high as $1,760 before hitting resistance and turning back downwards. The precious metal is now trading back around $1,735. $XAU $GLD https://t.co/QgXRBljgWe
  • Equities have managed to start the new month on the front foot as bond yields are taking a breather from their rapid surge over the last few weeks. DAX 30 bulls aim towards the 14,000 mark. Get your #DAX market update from @HathornSabin here:https://t.co/E7CYIM0KQC https://t.co/bnFyQfXLP6
  • ECB President Lagarde: - Pandemic is still heavily weighing on European economies - ECB will do its job to ensure firms and families can access finances needed to weather the storm - They can do so with confidence that financing conditions will not tighten prematurely #ECB $EUR
  • Heads Up:💶 ECB President Lagarde Speech due at 16:10 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-03-01
  • Forex Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.92% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.66% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.62% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.04% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.25% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.65% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/hg9Ce9xspE
Euro Struggles as EU Looks to Scale Back on Austerity

Euro Struggles as EU Looks to Scale Back on Austerity

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points

  • Euro: EU to Scale Back on Austerity amid Deepening Recession
  • British Pound: BoE Says ‘No Plan’ for Negative Interest Rates
  • U.S. Dollar: ISM Non-Manufacturing to Slow- Fed’s Lacker in Focus

Euro: EU to Scale Back on Austerity amid Deepening Recession

The EURUSD fell back from an overnight high of 1.3074 as the EU floated the idea of a possible ‘adjustment of the maturities on the EFSF and EFSM loans to Ireland and Portugal in order to smooth the debt redemption profiles of both countries,’ and the group may continue to scale back its push for austerity as the euro-area faces a deepening recession.

Although retail spending in the euro-area increased 1.2% in January, the Purchasing Manager Index for service-based activity slipped to 47.9 in February from 48.6 the month prior despite the upward revision from the initial forecast.

As the governments operating under the monetary union face record-high unemployment, we’re seeing a growing number of European policy makers curb their willingness to further address the debt crisis, and the periphery countries are likely to become increasingly reliant on monetary support as they struggle to get their house in order.

In turn, the European Central Bank may strike a more dovish tone for monetary policy at the meeting scheduled for later this week, and we may see President Mario Draghi promote a rate cut for the euro-area as the economic downturn threatens price stability.

As the EURUSD fails to push back above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.3120, the pair may continue to consolidate ahead of the ECB interest rate decision, but the rebound in the relative strength index may foreshadow a larger correction in the exchange rate as it slowly comes off of oversold territory.

British Pound: BoE Says ‘No Plan’ for Negative Interest Rates

The British Pound climbed to an overnight high of 1.5198 as service-based activity in the U.K. expanded at a faster pace during February, and the sterling may continue to recoup the losses from the previous month as the economic recovery slowly gathers momentum.

As the Bank of England interest rate decision comes into focus, board member Spencer Dale, who was reappointed as the Chief Economist for another three-years, said that ‘there is no plan’ to implement negative interest rates in the U.K., and we may see the majority of the Monetary Policy Committee preserve a neutral policy stance as the central bank sees a slow and sustainable recovery ahead.

As the relative strength index on the GBPUSD finally climbs back above 30, the rebound from oversold territory should produce a more meaningful correction in the exchange rate, but we may see the sterling continue to trade below the 50.0% Fib from the 2009 low to high around 1.5260 should a growing number of BoE officials push for more quantitative easing.

U.S. Dollar: ISM Non-Manufacturing to Slow- Fed’s Lacker in Focus

The greenback continued lose ground on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) slipping to a fresh weekly low of 10,434, and the reserve currency may come under increased pressure during the North American trade as the economic docket is expected to show a slowing recovery.

Indeed, the ISM Non-Manufacturing index is expected to cross the wires at 55.0 following the 55.2 print in January, while the IBD/TIPP gauge for economic optimism is anticipated to narrow to 47.2 from 47.3 in February.

However, comments from Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker, the lone dissenter on the 2012 FOMC, may prop up the greenback as we’re seeing a growing number of central bank officials adopt a more hawkish tone for monetary policy, and the bullish sentiment surrounding the greenback may gather pace over the near to medium-term as the FOMC appears to be slowly moving away from its easing cycle.

FX Upcoming

Currency

GMT

EDT

Release

Expected

Prior

USD

15:00

10:00

ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite (FEB)

55.0

55.2

USD

15:00

10:00

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (MAR)

47.2

47.3

USD

19:00

14:00

Fed's Jeffrey Lacker Speaks on Monetary Policy

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

Will the EUR/USD Resume the Downward Trend From 2011? Join us in the Forum

RelatedArticles: Weekly Currency Trading Forecast

New to FX? Watch this Video

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES