News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Iron drops below $100/ton as China steel cuts weigh on demand
  • Bitcoin price action loses traction below the key psychological level of $48,000. Get your market update from @Tams707 here:
  • the S&P 500 has tested this resistance zone every day this week 4472-4479 $ES $SPY $SPX buyers haven't given up, have continued to offer support with higher lows over the past few days current support at 50% fibo of aug-sept mm
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • $USD breakout pulling back a bit but so far, that pullback has held support in the prior resistance zone $DXY
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here:
  • ECB's Makhlouf says fears of excessive inflation are exaggerated $EUR
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2021? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here:
  • Angola to cut November oil exports to lowest since at least 2008 - Angola exported 1.1mbpd of crude oil in September, according to Refinitiv
  • ECB's Kazaks - The 2% price target will not be met in the medium term - Inflation outlook likely to be revised higher
Forex: Euro Struggles on Growing Threats, Durable Goods Top Forecast

Forex: Euro Struggles on Growing Threats, Durable Goods Top Forecast

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points

  • Euro: Private Lending Contracts- ECB Warns on Cyprus, Portugal
  • British Pound: BoE to Target Growth Amid Triple-Dip Recession
  • U.S. Dollar: Durable Goods Top Forecast, Pending Home Sales On Tap

Euro: Private Lending Contracts- ECB Warns on Cyprus, Portugal

The Euro pared the advance from the previous week as a report by the European Central Bank showed household lending contracted for the eighth consecutive month in December, and the single currency remains poised to face additional headwinds over the remainder of the month as the debt crisis continues to dampen the outlook for the region.

Indeed, ECB board member Joerg Asmussen warned that ‘disorderly developments in Cyprus,’ and the growing threat of a default is likely to produce further headwinds for the EURUSD as European policy makers maintain a reactionary approach in addressing the debt crisis. At the same time, Governing Council member Carlos Costa warned that the public reforms in Portugal are not sufficient to ensure sustainable finances, and we may see a growing number of central bank officials continue to push for more austerity as the governments operating under the fixed-exchange rate system become increasingly reliant on monetary support.

As the economic docket for later this week is expected to show unemployment in the euro-area climbing to a fresh record-high of 11.9% in December, the deepening recession in Europe should further dampen the appeal of the single currency, and euro-dollar looks poised for a near-term correction as the relative strength index maintains the downward trend carried over from the previous year. As the near-term rally in the EURUSD struggles to clear the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.3500, we are looking for a move back towards the 38.2% retracement (1.3120), and the pair may struggle to maintain the bullish trend dating back to July as the outlook for growth and inflation deteriorates.

British Pound: BoE to Target Growth Amid Triple-Dip Recession

The British Pound continued to lose ground as future Bank of England Governor Mark Carney showed a greater willingness to allow above-target inflation to ensure a stronger recovery in the U.K., while central bank board member David Miles floated the idea of a temporary growth target for the Monetary Policy Committee as the region faces a growing risk for a triple-dip recession.

As data coming out of the U.K. falls short of expectations, the weakening outlook for growth may produce further declines in the exchange rate, and it seems as though the BoE is scaling back its willingness to address the risk for inflation as the region struggles to emerge from the economic downturn.

Nevertheless, the recent decline in the GBPUSD could be coming to an end as the relative strength index comes up against oversold territory, and we may see the pound-dollar carve a bottom above the 38.2% Fib from the 2009 low to high around 1.5680 as the pair looks poised for a correction.

U.S. Dollar: Durable Goods Top Forecast, Pending Home Sales On Tap

The greenback extended the advance from the previous week, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) rallying to a fresh monthly high of 10,198, and the reserve currency may appreciate further in the days ahead as the fundamental outlook for the world’s largest economy improves.

Indeed, demands for U.S. Durable Goods increased 4.6% in December amid forecasts for a 2.0% print, while the gauge for future business investments climbed 0.2% during the same period, which exceeded expectations for a 0.2% contraction.

As the economic recovery gradually gathers pace, we may see the 2013 FOMC scale back its willingness to expand the balance sheet further, and the central bank interest rate decision on tap for later this week may heightening the bullish sentiment surrounding the dollar should a growing number of Fed officials drop their dovish tone for monetary policy.

FX Upcoming










Pending Home Sales (MoM) (DEC)






Pending Home Sales (YoY) (DEC)






ISM Releases 2013 Seasonal Adjustments




Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (JAN)






Trade Balance (NZ$) (DEC)






Exports (NZ$) (DEC)






Imports (NZ$) (DEC)






Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD (NZ$) (DEC)



--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to

Will the EUR/USD Resume the Downward Trend From 2011? Join us in the Forum

Related Articles: Weekly Currency Trading Forecast

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.