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Forex: Euro Struggles Ahead Of Draghi- Sterling To Rally On U.K. CPI

Forex: Euro Struggles Ahead Of Draghi- Sterling To Rally On U.K. CPI

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points

  • Euro: Bundesbank Warns Of Deepening Recession, All Eyes On ECB President Draghi
  • British Pound: Clears 23.6% Fib, U.K. CPI In Focus Ahead Of BoE Minutes
  • U.S. Dollar: Empire Manufacturing Disappoints, Fed’s Lacker On Tap

Euro: Bundesbank Warns Of Deepening Recession, All Eyes On ECB President Draghi

The Euro is struggling to hold its ground on Monday as the Bundesbank warns of a ‘perceptible decline in economic activity,’ and the deepening recession in Europe continues to cast a bearish outlook for the single currency as the European Central Bank (ECB) looks to carry its easing cycle into the following year.

As ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to testify in front of the European Parliament later today, dovish comments from the central bank head are likely to fuel speculation for another rate cut, and we may see the Governing Council discuss a zero-interest rate policy in the following year as the governments operating under the fixed-exchange rate system become increasingly reliant on monetary support.

Indeed, the EURUSD looks poised for a short-term correction as the relative strength index approaches overbought territory, and we would like to see a close below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.3120 to pave the way for a more meaningful move to the downside. However, we may see pair make a run at the May high (1.3283) as European policy makers attempt to talk down the risks surrounding the region, and the relief rally in the single currency may gather pace over the next 24-hours of trading should ECB President Draghi strike a more neutral tone for monetary policy.

British Pound: Clears 23.6% Fib, U.K. CPI In Focus Ahead Of BoE Minutes

The British Pound extended the advance from the previous week, with the GBPUSD climbing to a fresh monthly high of 1.6215, and the sterling may appreciate further over the next 24-hours of trading as the economic docket is expected to show heightening price pressures in the U.K.

Although the headline reading for U.K. inflation is expected to hold steady at 2.7%, we’re anticipating to see a small uptick in core consumer prices, and a strong CPI print should spark a bullish reaction in the pound-dollar as it dampens the Bank of England’s (BoE) scope to expand its balance sheet further. In turn, the BoE Minutes due out on December 19 may sound more hawkish this time around, and we should see the central bank slowly move away from its easing cycle in the following year as it looks to address the risk for inflation.

As the GBPUSD climbs back above the 23.6% Fib from the 2009 low to high around 1.6200, we may see the pair threaten the September high (1.6308) going into the BoE Minutes, but we will need to keep a close eye on the relative strength index as it approaches overbought territory.

U.S. Dollar: Empire Manufacturing Disappoints, Fed’s Lacker On Tap

The greenback is struggling to hold its ground on Monday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) tagging a low of 9,935, and the reserve currency may trade heavy throughout the North American trade as currency traders increase their appetite for risk.

Indeed, market participants showed a fairly muted reaction to the dismal Empire Manufacturing report even as the index fell back to -8.10 in December amid forecasts for a -1.00 print, and the dollar may continue to retrace the rebound from earlier this month as the Federal Reserve maintains a relatively dovish tone for monetary policy.

Nevertheless, we may see Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker talk up the dollar as he remains the sole dissenter on the FOMC, and we may see Mr. Lacker talk down speculation for additional monetary support as the world’s largest economy gets on a more sustainable path.

FX Upcoming










ECB President Mario Draghi Testifies to European Parliament




ECB's Vitor Constancio Speaks on Euro Economy




Fed's Jeremy Stein Speaks on Dollar Funding, Banking System




Fed's Jeffrey Lacker Speaks on U.S. Economic Outlook




Conference Board Leading Index (OCT)


--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to

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