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Forex: Euro Clears 1.3000 Ahead Of Greek Details- Spain Back In Radar

Forex: Euro Clears 1.3000 Ahead Of Greek Details- Spain Back In Radar

2012-11-29 15:00:00
David Song, Strategist

Talking Points

  • Euro: Spain To Seek Aid, Greek Bond-Buyback Details On Horizon
  • British Pound: BoE Cautious On U.K. Banks, Policy Outlook Remains Favorable
  • U.S. Dollar: 3Q GDP Shows 2.7% Expansion, Personal Consumption Slows

Euro: Spain To Seek Aid, Greek Bond-Buyback Details On Horizon

The Euro continued to pare the decline from earlier this week as Greece prepares to announce the details of the bond-buyback program, but we will maintain our bearish outlook for the EURUSD as the recent efforts to address the debt crisis only helps to buy more time.

Indeed, there’s growing speculation that Greece will need further assistance beyond the new aid package as the region faces a deepening recession, and the reactionary approach in tackling the threat for contagion should continue to drag on the exchange rate as the periphery countries struggle to get their house in order.

As the EU increases its effort to preserve the monetary union, there’s growing bets that Spain will finally request a bailout in the coming days, but the ongoing turmoil in the financial system may continue to exacerbate the economic downturn in the euro-area as the governments operating under the fixed-exchange rate system continue to act in their own interest. As European policy makers struggle to meet on common ground, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to come under increased pressure to provide additional support, but we may now see the Governing Council target the benchmark interest rate as the recession threatens the outlook for price stability.

As the EURUSD appears to be carving out a lower top around 1.3000, we should see the pair preserve the downward trend carried over from the previous year, and we anticipate a more meaningful move to the downside as long as the relative strength index continues to find resistance around the 66 figure.

British Pound: BoE Cautious On U.K. Banks, Policy Outlook Remains Favorable

The British Pound halted the three-day decline on Thursday, with the GBPUSD climbing to a high of 1.6046, and the sterling may continue to retrace the selloff from the previous month as the Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to carry its current policy into the following year.

However, the BoE’s semi-annual Financial Stability Report warned U.K. lenders may need more capital to protect against potential losses amid the ongoing slack within the real economy, and the ongoing weakness in the banking system may limit the scope for a more robust recovery as the central bank maintains a cautious outlook for the region.

Nevertheless, the heightening threat for inflation is likely to become a greater concern for the Monetary Policy Committee as the headline reading stubbornly holds above the 2% target, and the shift in the policy outlook may ultimately pave the way for another run at the 1.6300 figure as the central bank now sees limited scope to expand its balance sheet further.

U.S. Dollar: 3Q GDP Shows 2.7% Expansion, Personal Consumption Slows

The greenback extended the decline from the previous day, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) slipping to a low of 9,965, and the reserve currency may continue to give back the rebound from earlier this week amid fears of a slowing recovery in the world’s largest economy.

Despite the upward revision in the preliminary 3Q GDP print, the slower pace of personal consumption may reflect a broader slowdown in the economic recovery as it remains one of the leading drivers of growth. However, the lagging indicator may do little to fuel bets for more monetary support as the Fed anticipates to see a stronger recovery in 2013, and we should see the central bank carry its wait-and-see approach into the following year as the recovery gradually gathers pace.

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

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