We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The European Commission proposed an ambitious recovery fund, containing the key parts of the Franco-German aid package with grants at EUR 500bln and loans at EUR 250bln. Get your $EURUSD update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/LmIaveRajb https://t.co/LWTBVLIDBf
  • The trio of central banks overseeing the commodity currencies have already cut their main rates to all-time lows. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/OSUXrN5P3j https://t.co/3nwDel6e28
  • The tension from March continues to subside, allowing for the $USD to slide to fresh two-month-lows. Get your currencies market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/bRSRjUqg6Z https://t.co/Q35YpIZEd2
  • López Obrador hopes #USMCA will help tighten trade relationships between the US and Mexico. Get your currencies market update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/bZrUKSCGaS https://t.co/MZ7UoiWWRj
  • The $AUD may suffer as relations between Australia and China deteriorate amid dwindling growth prospects. Euro traders will be closely watching progress in talks about a €500b recovery fund proposal. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/sofO135ElG
  • The US Dollar could rise against #ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar as US-China tensions seem to escalate. The Indian Rupee is also looking ahead of local 1Q GDP data. Get your ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/LkEFJViPWY https://t.co/ZGFaQQ3Hr2
  • The #Euro is the big driver here for DXY as it is 57% of the index. It is rising now and trying to break above the March 27 high at 11147. Get your $EURUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/6gt3F9LuGP https://t.co/73SaL5AeXD
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/EIC9YqfTec
  • Anybody else think that casting directors in movies are some of the most underrated people when it comes to giving a film/series credit?
  • No https://t.co/EoBltaP17k
Euro Weighed By Greek Fears- ECB May Fail To Solve Debt Crisis

Euro Weighed By Greek Fears- ECB May Fail To Solve Debt Crisis

2012-09-21 12:20:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

  • Euro: ECB May Fail To Solve Crisis, Troika To Return To Greece
  • British Pound: U.K. Deficit Hits Record, BoE Sees Recovery Next Quarter

Euro: ECB May Fail To Solve Crisis, Troika To Return To Greece

The Euro pared the overnight advance to 1.3046 as Greece persistently struggles to secure its next bailout payment, and the single currency may face additional headwinds over the near-term as the debt crisis continues to dampen the outlook for the region.

Indeed, the Troika – the European Union, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund – will return to Athens in a week as the EUR 11.6B austerity program remains under review, while there’s talk that Greece will introduce new taxes, which is expected to raise an additional EUR 2B in revenue.

Meanwhile, former Bundesbank President Axel Weber warned that the European Central Bank may not be able to solve the debt crisis as the non-standard measures only help to buy time, but the Governing Council may come under additional pressure to expand policy further as the governments operating under the single currency become increasingly reliant on monetary support.

As the euro-area faces a deepening recession, ECB President Mario Draghi may see scope to cut the benchmark interest rate further, and we may see the central bank carry its easing cycle into the following year as growth and inflation falter. In turn, we will maintain our bearish forecast for the EURUSD, and the pullback from 1.3170 looks poised to turn into a larger correction as the relative strength index continues to come off of overbought territory.

British Pound: U.K. Deficit Hits Record, BoE Sees Recovery Next Quarter

The British Pound rallied to a fresh monthly high of 1.6308 even as the U.K. saw a record GBP 14.4B budget deficit in August, and the sterling may continue to outperform against its major counterparts as the Bank of England softens its dovish tone for monetary policy.

Indeed, BoE board member Spencer Dale said the early signs from its Funding for Lending program are encouraging as the new initiative is expected to boost private sector credit, while Governor Mervyn King sees the recovery taking hold in the next quarter as the region appears to be coming out of the double-dip recession.

Although the GBPUSD looks poised for a near-term correction, we may see the pair continue to track higher as the relative strength index continues to sit in overbought territory, and we will need to see the oscillator fall back below the 70 figure to see a more meaningful pullback in the exchange rate.

FX Upcoming

Currency

GMT

EDT

Release

Expected

Prior

CAD

12:30

8:30

Wholesale Sales (MoM) (JUL)

0.0%

-0.1%

CAD

12:30

8:30

Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)

0.3%

-0.1%

CAD

12:30

8:30

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)

1.3%

1.3%

CAD

12:30

8:30

Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (AUG)

0.3%

-0.1%

CAD

12:30

8:30

Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (AUG)

1.6%

1.7%

CAD

12:30

8:30

Consumer Price Index (AUG)

121.8

121.5

CAD

12:30

8:30

Consumer Price Index Core s.a. (MoM) (AUG)

0.2%

0.0%

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

Will the EUR/USD Resume the Downward Trend From 2011? Join us in the Forum

Related Articles: Weekly Currency Trading Forecast

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.