News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • GBP turbulence persists as investors eye the next round of EU-UK Brexit negotiations. Cautious optimism signals a deal is near. Get your #currencies update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/WjU4oYpmf7 https://t.co/VcNnCjm0B2
  • An economic calendar is a resource that allows traders to learn about important economic information scheduled to be released. Stay up to date on the most important global economic data here: https://t.co/JdvW6HNuqV https://t.co/AiLoS7DrEQ
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/3Wked6GBOp https://t.co/HicBmGrokK
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:https://t.co/7kPzAoNoLG https://t.co/5lbyBJeeA7
  • Entry orders are a valuable tool in forex trading. Traders can strategize to come up with a great trading plan, but if they can’t execute that plan effectively, all their hard work might as well be thrown out. Learn how to place entry orders here: https://t.co/lAFyv1gM0P https://t.co/ubLimoYAcr
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/QQwAZTxZFg https://t.co/4cRhRCiv3C
  • The US Dollar could gain as it forms bullish technical formations against the Singapore Dollar and Malaysian Ringgit. USD/PHP may have bottomed, will USD/IDR rise next? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3UIKmbLIvD https://t.co/PY2YyH4vkQ
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your $USDINR market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/3wsYlSxd26 https://t.co/z2qB9p8IgX
  • A proxy of #EmergingMarket capital flows hit its lowest since July, falling with the #SP500 after some divergence This is as #USD gained against its developing FX counterparts, highlighting potential risk of a spillover outwards Stay tuned for next week's #ASEAN fundy outlook! https://t.co/kAvpnb0EXO
  • 4 consecutive down weeks for the #SP500, last matched over a year ago #Fed balance sheet continues to gain very cautiously, now at its highest since the middle of June. Still, at slower pace than last week Focus shifts to US fiscal stimulus next week in the House of Reps https://t.co/f8zpSILm86
USD Outlook Hinges On Bernanke, Euro To Falter Should ECB Disappoint

USD Outlook Hinges On Bernanke, Euro To Falter Should ECB Disappoint

2012-08-31 12:45:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

  • U.S. Dollar: Under Pressure Amid QE3 Bets, All Eyes On Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke
  • Euro: Spain Pushes Back Tapping Bailout, ECB Rate Decision May Disappoint
  • British Pound: To Maintain Upward Trend As BoE Preserves Current Policy

U.S. Dollar: Under Pressure Amid QE3 Bets, All Eyes On Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke

The greenback is struggling to hold its ground on Friday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) slipping to a low of 9,989, but the reserve currency may regain its footing going into the holiday weekend should Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke talk down speculation for another round of quantitative easing. As the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium takes center stage, the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric should set the tone for September, and we may see Mr. Bernanke sound more upbeat this time around as the world’s largest economy gets on a more sustainable path. Indeed, the chairman may take note of recent pickup in economic activity as the Fed’s Beige Book instills an improved outlook for the U.S., and we would need to see the central bank head soften his dovish tone for monetary policy to see a bullish reaction in the dollar.

Euro: Spain Pushes Back Tapping Bailout, ECB Rate Decision May Disappoint

The EURUSD climbed to a high 1.2625 as Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy tried to quell fears and announced the government will delay tapping the EUR 100B bank bailout package, but the ongoing turmoil in the monetary union will continue to drag on the exchange rate as the euro-area heads for a prolonged recession. Indeed, Moody’s Investor Services warned that Spain remains on review for a possible credit rating downgrade heading into September, and said further assistance for the region may heighten the medium-term risk for government debt-holders as European policy makers struggle to stem the risk for contagion. As the debt crisis continues to drag on the real economy, we should see the European Central Bank continue to strike a cautious tone at the policy meeting on tap for the following week, but the press conference with President Mario Draghi may disappoint should the central bank head refrain from announcing further details on its asset purchase program. At the same time, we may see a growing rift within the Governing Council as the non-standard measures comes under increased scrutiny, and the central bank may show a greater willingness to implement a range of tools over the coming months in an effort to stem the downside risks for the region. As the EURUSD finally clears the 100-Day SMA (1.2582), the upward trending channel carried over from the previous month may continue to take shape in September, but we may see the ECB rate decision fail to prop up the single currency should the central bank head merely reiterate the statement from the last meeting.

British Pound: To Maintain Upward Trend As BoE Preserves Current Policy

The British Pound advanced to 1.5889 amid the rise in risk sentiment, and the sterling may track higher in the week ahead as the Bank of England is widely expected to maintain its current policy in September. It seems as though the BoE will keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.50% while maintaining its asset purchase program at GBP 375B as the new lending scheme gets under way, and we may see the Monetary Policy Committee refrain from releasing a policy statement as they revert back to a wait-and-see approach. In turn, the upward trending channel from July may continue to gather pace next week, but we will be keeping a close eye on relative strength index as it approaches overbought territory.

FX Upcoming

Currency

GMT

EDT

Release

Expected

Prior

USD

13:45

9:45

Chicago Purchasing Manager (AUG)

53.5

53.7

USD

13:55

9:55

U. of Michigan Confidence (AUG F)

73.6

73.6

USD

14:00

10:00

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks on Monetary Policy

USD

14:00

10:00

Factory Orders (JUL)

1.2%

-0.5%

GBP

15:55

11:55

BoE's Andrew Haldane Speaks on Financial Stability

USD

16:00

12:00

NAPM-Milwaukee (AUG)

46.7

GBP

17:10

13:10

BoE's Adam Posen Speaks on Monetary Policy

USD

18:30

14:30

IMF's Christine Lagarde Speaks on Global Policy

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

Will the EUR/USD Resume the Downward Trend From 2011? Join us in the Forum

Related Articles: Weekly Currency Trading Forecast

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES