News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Why is JPY called a safe haven? What are some factors in its favor this quarter? Get your free forecast here: https://t.co/mzeJ5x73N3 #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/S4bwgGZxmw
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/T3W8CIg5iy
  • Forex sentiment analysis can be a useful tool to help traders understand and act on price behavior. Learn how to get the most out of understanding trader sentiment here: https://t.co/rJznrXkcYz https://t.co/FPgZ5gkgrM
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/8A1QhwMVKo https://t.co/E0KhcKHrOf
  • For some reason an old story has popped up - many apologies.... https://t.co/jHjQxyFRXM
  • The US dollar is unloved, oversold and at lows last seen over 30-months ago. At the moment there seems to be very little reason to buy the greenback. Get your $USD market update from @nickcawley1 here:https://t.co/VY3SLs35cp https://t.co/w5ljByv9cf
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/CpqePQYF4E
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/Rg2YGZCUCr
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/ftrbRkFiJF
  • Human error in the forex market is common and often leads to familiar trading mistakes. These trading mistakes crop up particularly with novice traders on a regular basis. Learn about the top ten trading mistakes and how you can avoid them here: https://t.co/i8E2AXtzF3 https://t.co/Hny2HMYo4I
Dollar Struggles As NFPs Disappoint, Euro To Threaten Support

Dollar Struggles As NFPs Disappoint, Euro To Threaten Support

2012-04-06 13:40:00
David Song, Strategist

Talking Points

  • U.S. Dollar: NFPs Disappoint, Speculation For QE3 Resurfaces
  • Euro: Struggles To Hold Gains Amid Debt Fears, 1.3000 To Give Way
  • British Pound: Building Base Around 1.5800, Upward Trending Channel In Focus

U.S. Dollar: NFPs Disappoint, Speculation For QE3 Resurfaces

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR)slipped to 9,979 as NFPs crossed the wires at 120K versus forecasts for a 205K print, and the reserve currency may track lower throughout the holiday trade as bets for QE3 resurface. Beyond the headline figure, the jobless rate unexpectedly decline to 8.2% from 8.3% as discouraged workers left the labor force, while we saw a small pickup in wage growth, which certainly bodes well for private sector consumption. Indeed, the slowdown in job growth may spark some dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, but we expect the central bank to preserve its current policy throughout 2012 as the economic recovery gradually gathers pace. Nevertheless, as 9,950, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, provides interim support, the pullback in the USDOLLAR could provide a buying opportunity, and we expect the reserve currency to appreciate further over the near-term as the FOMC continues to move away from its easing cycle.

Euro: Struggles To Hold Gains Amid Debt Fears, 1.3000 To Give Way

The Euro advanced to 1.3111 amid the dismal development coming out of the world’s largest economy, but the rebound in the EURUSD may be short-lived as it struggles to hold above the 38.2% Fib from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.3100. Indeed, heighten fears surrounding the sovereign debt crisis continues to cast a bearish outlook for the single currency as market participants see another bailout for Portugal, and the ongoing turmoil in the periphery countries may push the European Central Bank to further expand its balance sheet as the governments operating under the fixed exchange rate system become increasingly reliant on monetary support. As the fundamental outlook for the region remains bleak, we should see 1.3000 give way, and the EURUSD looks poised to give back the advance from earlier this way as it carves out a lower top coming into April.

British Pound: Building Base Around 1.5800, Upward Trending Channel In Focus

The British Pound pared the decline from earlier this month to maintain the upward trending channel from earlier this year, and the pair looks poised to track higher in the following week as it appears to be building a short-term base around 1.5800. As the economic docket for the U.K. remains fairly light, we should see the technicals heavily influence the GBPUSD in the week ahead, and we anticipate to see another run at 1.6000 as the pair continues to carve out higher highs paired with higher lows. However, as the Bank of England Minutes are due out on March 18, we may see the pound-dollar consolidate ahead of the policy statement, but we may see the MPC continue to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy as central bank officials anticipate to see a stronger recovery later this year.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

Will the EUR/USD Resume the Downward Trend From 2011? Join us in the Forum

Related Articles: Weekly Currency Trading Forecast

FX Upcoming

Currency

GMT

EDT

Release

Expected

Prior

USD

19:00

15:00

Consumer Credit (FEB)

$12.000B

$17.776B

Currency

GMT

Release

Expected

Actual

Comments

JPY

5:00

Leading Index (FEB P)

95.8

96.6

Highest since January 2008.

JPY

5:00

Coincident Index (FEB P)

93.6

93.7

EUR

6:45

French Central Government Balance (euros) (FEB)

--

-24.2B

Widens for the first time since October.

EUR

6:45

French Trade Balance (euros) (FEB)

-5200M

-6398M

Largest deficit since September.

USD

12:30

Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (MAR)

210K

120K

Slowest pace of growth since October. Jobless rate lowest since January 2009.

USD

12:30

Unemployment Rate (MAR)

8.3%

8.2%

USD

12:30

Change in Private Payrolls (MAR)

215K

121K

USD

12:30

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (MAR)

20K

37K

USD

12:30

Change in Household Employment (MAR)

--

-31

USD

12:30

Underemployment Rate (U6) (MAR)

--

14.5%

USD

12:30

Average Hourly Earning (MoM) (MAR)

0.2%

0.2%

Fastest pace of growth since December.

USD

12:30

Average Hourly Earning (YoY) (MAR)

1.9%

2.1%

USD

12:30

Average Weekly Hours (MAR)

34.5

34.5

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES