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EURUSD Continues To Carve Top Ahead Of ECB, GBP Consolidation Ahead

EURUSD Continues To Carve Top Ahead Of ECB, GBP Consolidation Ahead

2012-04-03 13:20:00
David Song, Strategist

Talking Points

  • Euro: Continues To Carve Lower Top Ahead Of ECB Rate Decision
  • British Pound: BCC Calls For Stronger Recovery, Consolidation Ahead
  • U.S. Dollar: FOMC Minutes In Focus, Looking For Less Dovish Comments

Euro: Continues To Carve Lower Top Ahead Of ECB Rate Decision

The EURUSD fell back from an overnight high of 1.3366 as rising borrowing costs in Europe renewed fears for contagion and the pair may continue to give back the advance from the previous month as the sovereign debt crisis continues to dampen the outlook for the euro-area. Indeed, European policy makers made an attempt to calm market jitters by talking down the risks surrounding the periphery nations, but a note from Goldman Sachs argued that the EUR 800B bailout fund is ‘not sufficient to credibly backstop the bigger non-core countries’ as the governments operating under the single currency struggle to tap the financial markets.

At the same time, Goldman warned that the bigger rescue fund does little to address the ‘debt overhang’ and went onto say that the European Central Bank is ‘best-positioned’ to tackle rising borrowing costs as the EU maintains a reactionary approach in addressing the debt crisis. Although the ECB is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 1.00% on Wednesday, market participants will certainly turn their attention to the policy statement accompanying the rate decision, and comments from President Mario Draghi could set the tone for future price action as currency traders weigh the outlook for monetary policy. However, as the Governing Council continues to monitor the impact of the Long Term Refinancing Operation, the central bank head may strike a balanced tone for the region, but Mr. Draghi may keep the door open to expand monetary policy further as the economy continues to face a risk for a prolonged recession. As the ECB rate decision comes into focus, we may see the EURUSD continue to track sideways over the next 24-hours of trading, but we will maintain our bearish call for the euro-dollar as the pair continues to carve out a lower top just below 1.3400.

British Pound: BCC Calls For Stronger Recovery, Consolidation Ahead

The British Pound slipped to 1.5967 on Tuesday as the British Chambers of Commerce encourage the government to foster a stronger recovery, and the GBPUSD may consolidate further over the next 24-hours of trading should the economic docket cast a weakened outlook for the U.K. However, as Bank of England officials anticipate to see a more robust recovery in 2012, the central bank is widely expected to maintain its current policy in April, and we may see the bullish sentiment underlining the sterling gather pace should the central bank continue to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy. As the GBPUSD maintains the upward trend from earlier this year, we are still looking for another run at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 low to high around 1.6250, but we may see the pair consolidate over the near-term as market participants look forward to the BoE meeting minutes due out on April 18.

U.S. Dollar: FOMC Minutes In Focus, Looking For Less Dovish Comments

The greenback regained its footing going into the North American trade, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR)bouncing back from a low of 9,893, and the reserve currency may continue to track higher over the next 24-hours of trading should the Federal Reserve continue to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy. As the FOMC Minutes come into focus, the fresh batch of comments from the central bank is likely to heavily influence the USD, and we may see the committee talk down speculation for another large-scale asset purchase program as Fed officials take note of the more robust recovery. In turn, we may see the central bank strike an improved outlook for the world’s largest economy, and the FOMC may see scope to conclude its easing cycle this year as growth and inflation pick up.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

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FX Upcoming

Currency

GMT

EDT

Release

Expected

Prior

USD

14:00

10:00

Factory Orders (FEB)

1.5%

-1.0%

USD

18:00

14:00

Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes

USD

20:05

16:05

Fed's John Williams Speaks on U.S. Economy

USD

21:00

17:00

Total Vehicle Sales (MAR)

14.50M

15.03M

USD

21:00

17:00

Domestic Vehicle Sales (MAR)

11.35M

11.70M

Currency

GMT

Release

Expected

Actual

Comments

JPY

23:50

Monetary Base (YoY) (MAR)

--

-0.2%

Contracts for the first time since August 2008.

CNY

1:00

Purchasing Manager Index Non-Manufacturing (MAR)

--

58.0

Highest reading since May.

JPY

1:30

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (FEB)

--

0.7%

Rises for the first time since May.

AUD

1:30

Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

0.2%

0.2%

Rises for the second month.

AUD

4:30

Reserve Bank of Australia Intereset Rate Decision

4.25%

4.25%

Keeps door open for rate cut on slower growth and inflation.

GBP

8:30

Purchasing Manager Index Construction (MAR)

53.4

56.7

Highest since June 2010.

EUR

9:00

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (FEB)

0.5%

0.6%

Slowest pace of growth since August 2010.

EUR

9:00

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)

3.5%

3.6%

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