News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Read this now⬇️ https://t.co/FdPt6fBbYD
  • With #Election2020 around the corner, could stock markets predict the outcome? As of today, the #DowJones and #SP500 averaged: +1.86% a year before the election -1.79% 3 months before the vote Historically, what may this mean for the incumbent/Trump? - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/10/28/SP-500-Dow-Jones-Can-Stock-Markets-Predict-Presidential-Elections.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/k9jdS7adQJ
  • Poll: Is this break from the Dow, $SPX, global indices, crude oil, carry trade, etc 'the' break in risk trends. In other words, is this start of a productive bear that brings us into official 'bear trend' territory (-20% from highs)?
  • RT @FxWestwater: S&P 500 Price Forecast: Options Traders Hedge Bets as #VIX Soars - via @DailyFX $SPX $VIX https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2020/10/28/SP-500-Price-Forecast-Options-Traders-Hedge-Bets-as-VIX-Soars.html ht…
  • Probably a lot of bulls out there consulting the technical candlesticks books hoping for a bullish belt hold reversal from the $SPX. Key tenant of that 'pattern' is that you shouldn't take the single candle in isolation. https://t.co/T232cOPHkK
  • The Nasdaq 100 is battling soaring covid cases, election uncertainty and earnings season, but lockdowns in Europe likely sparked Wednesday’s decline. Get your #Nasdaq market update from @PeterHanksFX here:https://t.co/U1s6ccvTcI https://t.co/6mKYToiEVg
  • Central Bank of Brazil: CPI trends are being monitored closely - BBG
  • 🇧🇷 Interest Rate Decision Actual: 2% Expected: 2% Previous: 2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
  • 🇰🇷 Business Confidence (OCT) Actual: 79 Previous: 68 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
  • 🇰🇷 Business Confidence (OCT) Actual: 76 Previous: 68 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
Euro Relief Rally To Fizzle As Investors Look Beyond Greek PSI Talk

Euro Relief Rally To Fizzle As Investors Look Beyond Greek PSI Talk

2012-03-08 16:10:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Talking Points

  • Euro: ECB Cuts Growth Forecast, Head-and-Shoulders Top In Progress
  • British Pound: BoE Maintains Current Policy, Watching Downward Trend In RSI
  • U.S. Dollar: Weighed By Risk Appetite, To Consolidate Ahead Of NFPs

Euro: ECB Cuts Growth Forecast, Head-and-Shoulders Top In Progress

The Euro pared the advance to1.3273 as the European Central Bank lowered its growth forecast for 2012 and the single currency remains poised to face additional headwinds over the near-term as the fundamental outlook for the euro-area turns increasingly bleak. Although ECB President Mario Draghi sees the Long Term Refinancing Operations aiding the economy, the rise in overnight deposits at the central bank suggests that the second three-year loan facility may not be having the desired effect, and we are likely to see the Governing Council keep the door open to expand monetary policy further as the central bank highlights a risk for a prolonged recession.

Nevertheless, as European policy makers see Greece averting a default, an imminent debt deal could prop up the single currency over the next 24-hours of trading, but broader concerns regarding the implementation of the second bailout package may continue to drag on the exchange rate as the EU struggles to restore investor confidence. As the EURUSD fails to push back above the 10-Day SMA at 1.3283, the pair looks to be carving a head-and-shoulders top in March, but we would need the 2/9 high (1.3320) to hold in order to complete the reversal pattern. In turn, we will be closely watching the 50-Day SMA (1.3082) as it continues to provide interim support, and will maintain a bearish outlook for the EURUSD as the sovereign debt crisis continues to drag on the real economy.

British Pound: BoE Maintains Current Policy, Watching Downward Trend In RSI

Indeed, market participants showed a muted reaction to the Bank of England interest rate decision as the central bank reverted back to a wait-and-see approach, and the British Pound should continue to trade sideways over the near-term as market participants look towards the policy meeting minutes due out on March 21. As the GBPUSD remains well supported by the 50-Day SMA (1.5673), the short-term rebound in the exchange rate could ultimately produce another run at 1.6000, but we may see the pound-dollar continue to retrace the decline from the end of October should the BoE talk down speculation for more quantitative easing. However, we will be closely watching the relative strength index as it maintains the downward trend from the previous month, and the mixed technical outlook for the GBPUSD will keep us on the sidelines until we see a clear direction bias for the pair.

U.S. Dollar: Weighed By Risk Appetite, To Consolidate Ahead Of NFPs

The greenback struggled to hold its ground on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones- FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) slipping to a low of 9,889, and market participants may continue to move away from the reserve currency as they increase their appetite for risk. Nevertheless, as the highly anticipated U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report comes into focus, we should see the dollar consolidate going into the key event, and we may see a positive development prop up the USD as the Federal Reserve talks down speculation for another large-scale asset purchase program. As the Fed softens its dovish tone for monetary policy, we should see fundamentals playing a greater role in driving price action for the greenback, and the more robust recovery could spark a shift in the policy outlook as Fed officials become increasingly optimistic towards the world’s largest economy.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

Will the EUR/USD Resume the Downward Trend From 2011? Join us in the Forum

Related Articles: Weekly Currency Trading Forecast

FX Upcoming

Currency

GMT

EDT

Release

Expected

Prior

NZD

21:45

16:45

Card Spending (MoM) (FEB)

0.1%

1.0%

NZD

21:45

16:45

Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (FEB)

0.1%

1.2%

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES