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Euro Holds Key Resistance Ahead Of EU Meeting, Sterling To Outperform

Euro Holds Key Resistance Ahead Of EU Meeting, Sterling To Outperform

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points

  • Euro: Outlook Hinges on EU Meeting, Juncker Sees Scope For Larger Greek Bailout
  • British Pound: Public Borrowing To Contract, BoE Minutes To Set Tone For Future Prices
  • U.S. Dollar: Weighed By Risk Appetite, Poised For Choppy Price Action Amid Holiday Trade

Euro: Outlook Hinges on EU Meeting, Juncker Sees Scope For Larger Greek Bailout

The Euro climbed to an overnight high of 1.3276 as European policy maker increased their efforts to avoid a Greek default, and the single currency may continue to gain ground over the next 24-hours of trading as the group pledges to nail out the details of the second bailout package later today. At the same time, Euro Group President Jean-Claude Juncker floated the idea of further increasing assistance for Greece, stating that the scope of the rescue package is ‘still open,’ but the EUR/USD may come under pressure should we see the EU struggle to meet on common ground. As the euro-dollar maintains the narrow range from earlier this month, developments coming out of the meeting will certainly set the tone for the rest of the week, and we may see the 100-Day SMA (1.3312) hold up as resistance should European policy makers make an attempt to buy more time.

British Pound: Public Borrowing To Contract, BoE Minutes To Set Tone For Future Prices

The British Pound climbed to 1.5879 as market participants increased their appetite for risk, and the sterling may appreciate further this week as the economic docket is expected to instill an improved outlook for the U.K. As public sector borrowing is expected to contract GBP 9.1B in January, the ongoing improvement in the governments balance sheet should help prop up the sterling, and we may see the sterling outperform against its major counterparts as Britain remains ahead of the curve in addressing its public finances. However, the lack of momentum to clear the 200-Day SMA (1.5919) may keep the pair range-bound ahead of the Bank of England Minutes due out on Wednesday, and the policy statement may set the tone for the rest of the month as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.

U.S. Dollar: Weighed By Risk Appetite, Poised For Choppy Price Action Amid Holiday Trade

The greenback struggled to hold its ground on Monday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) weakening to an overnight low of 9,779, and the reserve currency may face additional headwinds over the next 24-hours of trading as hopes surrounding the EU meeting in Brussels fuels risk-taking behavior. As the economic docket remains bare in light of Presidents Day, risk sentiment should dictate price action throughout the next 24-hours of trading, but we may see choppy price action across the major currencies as U.S. traders remain off line in observance of the market holiday.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

Will the EUR/USD Resume the Downward Trend From 2011? Join us in the Forum

Related Articles: Weekly Currency Trading Forecast

FX Upcoming

Currency

GMT

EDT

Release

Expected

Prior

No Scheduled Releases

Currency

GMT

Release

Expected

Actual

Comments

NZD

21:30

Performance Services Index (JAN)

--

53.6

Two-month high.

NZD

21:45

Producer Prices- Inputs (QoQ) (4Q)

0.4%

0.5%

Cools for the third straight quarter.

NZD

21:45

Producer Prices- Outputs (QoQ) (4Q)

0.5%

0.1%

JPY

23:50

Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (JAN)

-847.8B

-612.8B

Marks the largest deficit since the series began in 1993.

JPY

23:50

Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (JAN)

-1456.3B

-1475.0B

JPY

23:50

Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (JAN)

-9.4%

-9.3%

JPY

23:50

Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (JAN)

9.6%

9.8%

GBP

0:01

Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (FEB)

--

4.1%

Biggest rise since February 2002.

GBP

0:01

Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (FEB)

--

1.4%

JPY

5:00

Leading Index (DEC F)

--

94.0

Rises for the second month.

JPY

5:00

Coincident Index (DEC F)

--

93.6

JPY

5:30

Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)

--

-3.1%

Biggest decline since November.

JPY

5:30

Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)

--

-1.1%

JPY

7:00

Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)

--

1.7%

Rises for the fourth month.

EUR

7:45

French Own-Company Production Outlook (FEB)

--

-2

Highest reading since August.

EUR

7:45

French Production Outlook Indicator (FEB)

-36

-27

EUR

7:45

French Business Confidence Indicator (FEB)

92

92

EUR

9:00

Italian Industrial Orders s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

0.4%

5.5%

Biggest advance since March 2011.

EUR

9:00

Italian Industrial Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)

-5.6%

-4.3%

EUR

9:00

Italian Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

--

3.4%

Rises for the third month.

EUR

9:00

Italian Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)

--

5.6%

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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