News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • (#ASEAN Fundy) US Dollar Outlook: Bond Yields, Powell and CPI in Focus. USD/SGD Eyeing MAS, Chinese GDP #USD #Bonds #Fed #China #MAS $USDSGD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2021/04/12/US-Dollar-Outlook-Bond-Yields-Powell-and-CPI-in-Focus-USDSGD-Eyeing-MAS-Chinese-GDP.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/5PYoYUgggs
  • Ever wonder if there are other chart types that can be sued for technical analysis? HLOC charts are discussed in the following article as well as their pros and cons. Learn more here: https://t.co/qV3c7a4YR3 https://t.co/TIZQzitE1j
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.37% Gold: -0.28% Silver: -0.46% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/3xWt8YB351
  • The opening range for April raises the scope for a further decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY) as the monthly high (93.34) lines up with the first day of the month. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/3iHUdOz7Oy https://t.co/ZmsEtSOICA
  • New Zealand Dollar Forecast: NZD/USD, NZD/JPY Key Levels with RBNZ on Tap - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/04/12/New-Zealand-Dollar-Forecast-NZDUSD-NZDJPY-Key-Levels-with-RBNZ-on-Tap.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $NZD $NZDUSD $NZDJPY https://t.co/tziU8yPkpm
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.17% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.10% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.13% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.17% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.22% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.27% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ALbF5MkoCp
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 93.01%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 82.33%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/SJNlYSTnZU
  • Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, ASX 200 Outlook: Bank Earnings in Focus as US Stocks Hit Records https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/04/12/Dow-Jones-Nikkei-225-ASX-200-Outlook-Bank-Earnings-in-Focus-as-US-Stocks-Hit-Records.html https://t.co/lGG8J2ntXT
  • Is the Eurozone entering into a second debt crisis? Find out here: https://t.co/27Y8gKO0xY https://t.co/VRfjvmBq6N
  • 🇯🇵 PPI YoY (MAR) Actual: 1% Expected: 0.5% Previous: -0.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-11
Euro Outlook Deteriorates Amid EU Rift, Pound Takes Safe-Haven Role

Euro Outlook Deteriorates Amid EU Rift, Pound Takes Safe-Haven Role

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points

  • Euro: Germany Softens Support For Greek Bailout, ECB Sees Negative GDP In 2012
  • British Pound: U.K. Assets Get Treated As Safe-Haven, Outlook Hinges On BoE
  • U.S. Dollar: Economic Activity Gradually Gathers Pace, Risk Appetite Resurfaces

Euro: Germany Softens Support For Greek Bailout, ECB Sees Negative GDP In 2012

The Euro slipped to a fresh monthly low of 1.2973 as German policy makers softened their support for Greece’s second bailout package, and the growing rift within the EU may continue to drag on the exchange rate as the heightening risk for contagion weighs on investor confidence. At the same time, the European Central Bank monthly report noted an economic contraction for 2012, with the new figures projecting a 0.1% decline in gross domestic product, and the single currency remains primed to face additional headwinds over the near-term as the fundamental outlook for the euro-area turns increasingly bleak.

As the ECB prepares to push through its second three-year loan facility at the end of the month, it seems as though the Governing Council will preserve a wait-and-see approach throughout the first-quarter, but central bank Mario Draghi may show an increased willingness to push the benchmark interest rate below 1.00% as the slowing recovery in the euro-area dampens the outlook for inflation. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, market participants see a 60% chance for a 25bp rate cut at the next meeting on March 8, and speculation for lower borrowing costs supports our bearish outlook for the EUR/USD as interest rate expectations falter. As the EUR/USD carves out a top in February, the single currency should continue to give back the advance from earlier this year, and we may see the pair make a run at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high from the 2010 low around 1.2630-50 as it searches for support.

British Pound: U.K. Assets Get Treated As Safe-Haven, Outlook Hinges On BoE

In contrast with its European counterpart, the British Pound pared the overnight decline to 1.5654, and the sterling may continue to outperform as market participants appear to be treating the U.K. currency as a safe haven. Although Moody’s lower Britain’s credit rating outlook to negative, the ongoing turmoil in the euro-area appears to be spurring demands for the sterling, and the pound may move to the beat of its own drum as the U.K. remains ahead of the curve in addressing its budget deficit. However, as the Bank of England maintains a cautious tone for the region, speculation for more quantitative easing hampers the outlook for the sterling, and we may see the GBP/USD track within a broad range as market participants weigh the prospects for future policy. As the GBP/USD continues to hold above the weekly low (1.5644), we may see the pair consolidate going into the end of the week, and the pound-dollar may track sideways in the days ahead as the exchange rate remains capped by the 200-Day SMA at 1.5923.

U.S. Dollar: Economic Activity Gradually Gathers Pace, Risk Appetite Resurfaces

The greenback continued to appreciate against its major counterparts, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) advancing to an overnight high of 9,879, but the reserve currency is struggle to hold its ground during the North American trade as risk appetite flows back into the currency market. Indeed, the more robust recovery in the labor market paired with the gradual rise in private sector activity appears to be fueling risk-taking behavior, and we may see the dollar consolidate going into the end of the week as the slew of positive developments coming of the world’s largest economy instills an improved outlook for future growth. Although the shift in market sentiment dampened demands for the reserve currency, we should see the Federal Reserve continue to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy as the risk of a double-dip recession subsides.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

Will the EUR/USD Resume the Downward Trend From 2011? Join us in the Forum

Related Articles: Weekly Currency Trading Forecast

FX Upcoming

Currency

GMT

EDT

Release

Expected

Prior

USD

15:00

10:00

USD Mortgage Delinquencies (4Q)

--

8.0%

USD

15:00

10:00

USD MBA Mortgage Foreclosures (4Q)

--

4.4%

USD

15:00

10:00

USD Philadelphia Fed. (FEB)

9.0

7.3

Currency

GMT

Release

Expected

Actual

Comments

NZD

21:00

ANZ NZ Job Ads (MoM) (JAN)

--

-2.7%

Weakens for second month.

NZD

21:30

Business NZ PMI (JAN)

--

50.5

Expands for second month.

AUD

00:00

Consumer Inflation Expectation (FEB)

--

2.5%

Holds below 3% for the fourth month.

NZD

00:00

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (FEB)

--

113.3

Falls back from the highest level since January 201.

NZD

00:00

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (FEB)

--

-2.4%

GBP

00:01

Nationwide Consumer Confidence (JAN)

40

47

Highest since August.

AUD

00:30

RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (JAN)

--

383M

Falls back from the highest since June.

AUD

00:30

Employment Change (JAN)

10.0K

46.3K

Biggest advance since November 2010. Lowest jobless rate since July.

AUD

00:30

Unemployment Rate (JAN)

5.3%

5.1%

AUD

00:30

Full Time Employment Change (JAN)

0.0K

12.3K

AUD

00:30

Part Time Employment Change (JAN)

7.5K

34.0K

AUD

00:30

Participation Rate (JAN)

65.3%

65.3%

JPY

04:00

Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (JAN)

--

32.6%

Largest rise since December 2010.

EUR

07:00

EU 25 New Car Registrations (JAN)

--

-7.1%

Weakens for fourth month.

EUR

09:00

Italian Trade Balance (Total) (euros) (DEC)

--

1447M

Marks the first surplus since July.

EUR

09:00

Italian Trade Balance Eu (euros) (DEC)

--

-577M

EUR

10:00

Italian Current Account (euros) (DEC)

--

402M

CAD

13:30

International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (DEC)

10.00B

7.38B

Narrows for the first time in two-months.

CAD

13:30

Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (DEC)

2.0%

0.6%

Rises for the second month.

USD

13:30

Producer Price Index (MoM) (JAN)

0.3%

0.1%

Core prices remain sticky, rises at the fastest pace since June 2009.

USD

13:30

PPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (JAN)

0.2%

0.4%

USD

13:30

Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)

4.1%

4.1%

USD

13:30

PPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (JAN)

2.6%

3.0%

USD

13:30

Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 11)

365K

348K

Lowest since April 2008.

USD

13:30

Continuing Claims (FEB 4)

3490K

3426K

Lowest since August 2008.

USD

13:30

Housing Starts (JAN)

675K

699K

Bounces back to a two-month high.

USD

13:30

Housing Starts (MoM) (JAN)

-3.4%

1.5%

USD

13:30

Building Permits (JAN)

680K

676K

Above 600K for the fourth month.

USD

13:30

Building Permits (MoM) (JAN)

0.6%

0.7%

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES