News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1FMKUW https://t.co/PHK2sqB1jV
  • Top event risk for more than just the Dow and Dollar this week is the Wednesday #FOMC rate decision. What the markets expect sets the tone for how the event impacts price action. My run down of the week and Fed decision: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/06/12/Dollar-and-SP-500-Breaks-Must-Abide-the-FOMC-Decision-This-Week.html https://t.co/Huvth4f706
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/AkE7bFRWAt
  • $GBPUSD continues to trade in ranges as volatility dwindles. UK data to play second fiddle to FOMC. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/T0Eg4KaENB https://t.co/GMmZa5L0Il
  • Get your snapshot update of the of market open and closing times for each major trading hub around the globe here: https://t.co/BgZLFljIhZ https://t.co/wlGgQrcK3X
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from here: https://t.co/vGx8HCagF5 https://t.co/qnQ8Cx0DKv
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/RJLpBgS43V
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/6GrWzkOouM
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/lIUxpfSem3
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/8kBulRFd6l
Euro Eyes 1.3100 Ahead Of EU Meeting, Sterling Finds Resistance

Euro Eyes 1.3100 Ahead Of EU Meeting, Sterling Finds Resistance

David Song, Strategist

Talking Points

  • Euro: EU Meeting In Focus, Greece PSI Deal On Tap
  • British Pound: Struggles To Push Above 50-Day SMA, All Eyes On BoE Minutes
  • U.S. Dollar: Index Comes Up Against Support, To Consolidate Ahead Of FOMC

Euro: EU Meeting In Focus, Greece PSI Deal On Tap

The EUR/USD rallied to an overnight high of1.3031 as finance ministers across the euro-area increased their pledge to address the sovereign debt crisis, but the renewed efforts to stem the risk for contagion may be too little too late as the fundamental outlook for the region turns increasingly bleak. Indeed, market participants anticipate the EU to draw up a long-term solution to balance the ballooning deficit across the monetary union, while there’ve been reports that Greece has reached a tentative deal with private investors as the government tries to secure its second bailout package ahead of the EUR 14.5B debt payment due on March 20.

However, as European policy makers act in their own interest, the developments coming out of the EU meeting may fall short of market expectations, and we maintain a bearish outlook for the single currency as the fundamental outlook for the region turns increasingly bleak. Indeed, the international Monetary Fund encouraged the European Central Bank to increase monetary support as the slowing recovery dampens the outlook for inflation, and the Governing Council may extend its easing cycle throughout 2012 as the region faces an increased risk for a major economic downturn this year. As the EUR/USD comes up against the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.3100, the near-term correction could be coming to an end, and we expect to see single currency to face additional headwinds this week as the heightening risk for contagion continues to bear down on investor confidence. Should the 38.2% Fib hold up as near-term resistance, we should get an opportunity to play the euro-dollar back to the downside, and the pair may work its way back towards the 23.6% Fib around 1.2630-50 as it maintains the range from the beginning of the year.

British Pound: Struggles To Push Above 50-Day SMA, All Eyes On BoE Minutes

The British Pound bounced back from an overnight low of 1.5516 amid the rise in market sentiment, but the sterling may struggle to hold its ground this week as we anticipate the Bank of England policy meeting minutes to talk up speculation for additional monetary support. As the U.K. teeters on the brink of a double-dip recession, the BoE is expected to strike a dovish tone for future policy, and the Monetary Policy Committee may see scope to expand the Asset Purchase Facility beyond the GBP 275B target as central bank officials see an increased risk of undershooting the 2% target for inflation. As the GBP/USD struggles to push back above the 50-Day SMA at 1.5574, the pair appears to have carved out a lower high just below 1.5600, and

U.S. Dollar: Index Comes Up Against Support, To Consolidate Ahead Of FOMC

The greenback came under pressure on Monday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) tumbling to a low of 9,841, but we may see the reserve currency regain its footing during the North American trade as the rise in risk-taking behavior tapers off. As the U.S. equity market opens lower, it seems as though we will see market sentiment waver over the next 24-hours of trading, and we should see a near-term correction in the greenback as it comes up against support. As the USDOLLAR continues to trade above the 50.0% Fib around 9,828, the USD looks poised to pare the sharp decline from the previous week, but we may see the reserve currency hold a narrow range going into the middle of the week as the FOMC is scheduled to release their interest rate projection at the policy meeting on Wednesday. Nevertheless, as we expect the Fed to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy, the developments coming out of the rate decision could instill a bullish outlook for the USD, and the reserve currency looks poised to appreciate further over the near-term as market participants scale back speculation for another large-scale asset purchase program.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.

Will the EUR/USD Resume the Downward Trend From 2011? Join us in the Forum

Related Articles: Weekly Currency Trading Forecast

FX Upcoming

Currency

GMT

EDT

Release

Expected

Prior

EUR

15:00

10:00

Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JAN A)

-21.4

-21.1

GBP

18:00

13:00

BoE's Posen, Tucker Speak on U.K. Economy

--

--

Currency

GMT

Release

Expected

Actual

Comments

AUD

0:30

Producer Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)

0.4%

0.3%

Holds below 3% for second quarter.

AUD

0:30

Producer Price Index (YoY) (4Q)

3.0%

2.9%

JPY

5:00

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (DEC)

--

-0.6%

Weakens for the fifth month.

EUR

7:45

French Own-Company Production Outlook (JAN)

--

-6

Lowest reading since July 2010.

EUR

7:45

French Production Outlook Indicator (JAN)

-36

-37

EUR

7:45

French Business Confidence Indicator (JAN)

95

91

CHF

8:00

Real Estate Index Family Homes (4Q)

--

404.6

Highest since the series began in 1970.

CHF

8:00

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (DEC)

--

7.7%

Below 8% for second month.

CAD

13:30

Leading Indicators (MoM) (DEC)

0.6%

0.8%

Rises for the sixth consecutive month.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES