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Crude Oil Price Anchored Ahead of US CPI Despite Disruptions. Will Data Drive WTI?

Crude Oil Price Anchored Ahead of US CPI Despite Disruptions. Will Data Drive WTI?

Daniel McCarthy, Strategist

Crude Oil, US Dollar, US CPI, WTI, Brent, China, Hang Seng, Fed - Talking Points

  • Crude oil prices are stagnant, disregarding inventory data and supply woes
  • The anticipation of US CPI has seen markets somewhat calm today
  • If CPI creates a storm, will a US Dollar move impact WTI prices?

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Crude oil is steady through the Asian session ahead of the all-important US CPI later today.

This is despite the American Petroleum Institute (API) reporting that inventory of US crude increased by 2.2 million barrels last week, a large difference from the forecast 400k decrease.

The increase in stockpiles may have been offset by news that a Russian oil pipeline to central Europe had been shut down last week. The WTI futures contract is near US$ 90 bbl and the Brent contract is above US$ 96 bbl.

APAC equity indices are in the red today, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (HSI) leading the way lower, down over 2%. This follows on from a mixed day on Wall Street, with the Dow and S&P 500 little moved but the Nasdaq down 1.19% in the cash session.

A higher interest rate environment creates headwinds for technology stocks and the sector wasn’t helped by news that Elon Musk sold US$ 6.9 billion of Tesla stock at the end of last week.

US President Joe Biden announced a US$ 52 billion subsidy for domestic chips manufacturing.

He said that China actively lobbied American business groups against the bill.

The Chinese property sector remains in the spotlight with Beijing announcing a review into the US$ 3 trillion trust industry by the National Audit Office.

It is being reported that part of the probe will focus on the US$ 100 billion that President Xi Jinping allocated toward developing chip manufacturing capabilities.

Earlier today, Chinese CPI year-on-year to the end of July came in at 2.7%, instead of 2.9% and 2.5% previously. PPI over the same period saw 4.2% appreciation, rather than 4.9% forecast and 6.1% prior.

Gold is steady, trading around US$ 1,790 an ounce and currency markets have been very quiet ahead of the much-anticipated US CPI later today, and the market is looking at a softer headline expected but a softer core appears to be in store.

According to a Bloomberg survey, the market is anticipating headline year-on-year US CPI to be 8.7%.

Treasury yields have been relatively calm going into today’s data with the most significant move being the inversion of the 2s 10s part of the curve as it approaches -50-basis points.

The full economic calendar can be viewed here.

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WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The 21-day simple moving average (SMA) is approaching the 200-day SMA.

If it should move below it, this would create a Death Cross which may indicate bearish momentum is evolving.

Support could be at last Friday’s low of 87.01 or January’s low of 81.90. On the topside, resistance might be at the break point of 92.93, which is just above yesterday’s high.

CRUDE OIL PRICE

Chart created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel McCarthy, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @DanMcCathyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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