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Crude Oil Price Languishes Amid Stock Build and OPEC+ Doing Little. Will WTI Recover?

Crude Oil Price Languishes Amid Stock Build and OPEC+ Doing Little. Will WTI Recover?

Daniel McCarthy, Strategist

Crude Oil, EIA, API, OPEC+, AUD, FED, USD, GBP, BoE - Talking Points

  • Crude oil prices are struggling to bounce off the recent floor post OPEC+
  • The Fed has rolled out the rhetoric to stare down rate cut hopes by some markets
  • BoE are set to hike to combat inflation, Will a lower WTI oil price help them?

Crude oil remains under pressure through the Asian session today after Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that 4.5-million barrels of US oil were added to inventory last week.

This comes on top of the prior days report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) that showed a 2.165 million bbl build in US crude oil stocks for the week.

At their meeting yesterday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) added a measly 100,000 barrels per day to September supply.

They highlighted a lack of spare capacity. There is a perception in the market that they would be unable to increase production by a substantial amount even if they wanted to.

The Australian Dollar got a boost from another massive trade surplus of AUD 17.67 billion for the month of June. This beat the forecasts of AUD 14 billion and May’s surplus of AUD 15 billion.

Earlier in the US session, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari re-iterated previous familiar commentary from central bank officials that there is no implied pivot from the FOMC meeting last week.

St Lois Fed President James Bullard backed up his own comments from yesterday, stating a belief that he sees the Fed funds rate at 3.75–4.0% by the end of the year.

The hawkish rhetoric was bedded down by comments from San Francisco’s Mary Daly and Richmond’s Thomas Barkin. If one is to believe what they are all saying, a pause in Fed hikes is not on the table in the foreseeable future.

Over the last two days, the US Dollar and the rates market reflect this perspective. Equity markets and high yield bonds are pricing in the opposite.

Wall Street had a positive day with the Nasdaq posting a 2.59% rally. APAC equity indices are all in the green to some degree. Gold is slightly firmer above US$ 1,770 at the time of going to print.

Elsewhere, the US Senate ratified the membership of Finland and Sweden into NATO.

Sterling barely moved today ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) decision on rates. They are anticipated to lift by 50-basis points to 1.75%. The market will also be focusing on announcements regarding upcoming active sales of Gilts.

After the BoE’s decision on rates, the US will see trade numbers and initial jobless claims.

The full economic calendar can be viewed here.

WTI CRUDE OIL MARKET ANALYSIS

The last few days has seen a significant move lower in backwardation. It occurs when the contract closest to settlement is more expensive than the contract that is settling after that first one.

It highlights a willingness by the market to pay more to have immediate delivery, rather than having to wait. With backwardation falling back to levels seen before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it may allow for lower prices.

WTI CRUDE OIL CHART

Chart created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel McCarthy, Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @DanMcCathyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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