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Euro Pauses as Markets Take Stock Ahead of Fed Chair Powell. Will EUR/USD See New Lows?

Euro Pauses as Markets Take Stock Ahead of Fed Chair Powell. Will EUR/USD See New Lows?

Daniel McCarthy, Strategist

EURO, EUR/USD, US Dollar, Crude Oil, OPEC+, RBA, AUD - Talking Points

  • Euro finds support after recent weakness and historic lows move into view
  • Crude oil prices find support with USD softening after OPEC+ comments
  • All eyes on Fed Chair Powell ahead. Where to for EUR/USD from here?

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The Euro has seen small gains as the US Dollar slid in the Asian trading session today.

A soft lead from Wall Street did little to hold down APAC equities today. The North American bourses were weighed by a surprisingly low read from the New York Empire state manufacturing survey on general business conditions.

US Treasuries beyond 2-years remain steady but the 1-year note is inching above 2% yield again. Gold has remained firm, trading near US$ 1,825 an ounce.

The main focus later today will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, as he is expected to be making remarks. Last Thursday he maintained a view that 50 bp hikes are likely at the forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

Oil has held onto the gains made overnight after OPEC+ said that there’s not much spare capacity to add to current production levels of gasoline. The WTI and Brent crude oil futures contracts are both trading near US$ 114 bbl.

The RBA meeting minutes were released today and revealed that they considered a 15 basis-point (bp) or a 40 bp hike, before agreeing to a 25 bp hike at their meeting two weeks ago.

The Australian Dollar added slightly to earlier gains on the news and the Kiwi was also firmer. The US Dollar and Japanese Yen were a touch softer on the day

After UK jobs data and Euro zone GDP figures, the US will see some retails sales numbers.

The full economic calendar can be viewed here.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD has bounced off the low seen last Thursday of 1.0349, which was just above the January 2017 nadir of 1.0340. These levels may provide support.

On the topside, nearby resistance could be at the break point of 1.0472 or the 10-day simple moving average (SMA), which currently dissects at an historical level of 1.0494.

Further up, the break points at 1.0638, 1.0727 and 1.0758 might offer areas of resistance.

The 10-, 21-, 34-, 55-, 100- and 200-day SMAs all lie above the price and have negative gradients. This may suggest that bearish momentum remains intact.


Chart created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel McCarthy, Strategist for

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @DanMcCathyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.