0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:https://t.co/sR7HqpK8BI https://t.co/Q6WGzHhudp
  • Implementing a trading checklist is a vital part of the trading process because it helps traders to stay disciplined, stick to the trading plan, and builds confidence. Learn how to stick to the plan, stay disciplined, and use a checklist here: https://t.co/2MCG036HGH https://t.co/CbnRsuyRwi
  • #Gold saw its worst performance the past 5 days in 5 months as longer-dated government bond yields in developed countries rose Could this be the beginning of a turning point in #XAUUSD? https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/chf/2020/08/15/Gold-Price-Outlook-Will-XAUUSD-Brush-off-Worst-Week-in-5-Months.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/x2Indk3b7P
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out: https://t.co/td5WA4hCZC https://t.co/PT09ZsIOCa
  • The US #Dollar may rise, buoyed by haven demand as fiscal stimulus talks stagnate and swelling tensions between Washington and Beijing sink trade talks. Get your #currencies update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/Wcw9PDUr67 https://t.co/gnYZYl6aLV
  • Upside in #CrudeOil struggling ahead of #OPEC meeting. Cartel likely to maintain wait and see approach. Get your #commodities update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/gNHHKoTUzm https://t.co/eF40DRIBJ5
  • #Gold had some big moves last week, and while vol is expected to die down a bit, it will be important to see if gold can hold its ground in the coming days/weeks. Get your #metals update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/N8a84hRnHN https://t.co/3fjodPHTDm
  • The S&P 500's refusal to hit a record and Dollar's anchor to range this past week is sign of summer liquidity conditions, but the quiet is not insurmountable. 'S&P 500 Record and Dollar Break Look to Stimulus and Trade to Override Seasonality' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/08/15/SP-500-Record-and-Dollar-Break-Look-to-Stimulus-and-Trade-to-Override-Seasonality-.html https://t.co/mbvPkdQfYl
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/DmhBkcMZBK https://t.co/kFk6ccU3Sk
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/aXSB0bG3y0
EUR/CHF, EU Stoxx 50 Index Stalling as Investors Eye ECB, EU Summit

EUR/CHF, EU Stoxx 50 Index Stalling as Investors Eye ECB, EU Summit

2020-07-16 07:00:00
Daniel Moss,
Share:

EUR/CHF, EU Stoxx 50 Index, ECB Interest Rate Decision, EU Recovery Fund – Talking Points:

  • Risk appetite evaporated throughout Asia-Pacific trade as the Australian jobless rate surged to the highest level in 22 years.
  • The European Central Bank may employ a wait-and-see approach ahead of the European Union’s ‘special summit’ in Brussels.
  • EUR/CHF poised to move higher after smashing through the 200-day moving average.
  • EU Stoxx 50 index stalling at key resistance as divergence hints at potential reversal.

Asia-Pacific Recap

A distinct lack of appetite for risk was seen throughout Asia-Pacific trade, with the Australian Dollar plunging after the local jobless rate jumped to the highest level since 1998.

The ASX 200 followed suit, sliding back below 6,100 despite the Chinese economy expanding 11.5% in the second quarter of 2020.

S&P 500 futures nudged lower as the haven-associated Japanese Yen and US Dollar clawed back lost ground against their major counterparts.

Looking ahead, the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision, and press conference from President Christine Lagarde, headline the economic docket alongside US retails sales and jobless claims.

EUR/CHF, EU Stoxx 50 Index Stalling as Investors Eye ECB, EU Summit

Market reaction chart created using TradingView

Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by Daniel Moss
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

ECB to Hold Fire Ahead of EU Recovery Fund Negotiations

Having just expanded its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) by 600 billion in June, the European Central Bank is expected to keep its monetary policy levers steady on Thursday as focus turns to the European Union’s ‘special summit’ and deliberations regarding the implementation of a 750 billion coronavirus recovery fund.

ECB President Christine Lagarde believes the EU’s recovery fund “is a game-changer” for the Euro-zone as it “demonstrate(s) that there is a European Union, and that there is unity of purpose in order to continue to build and develop this market”.

EUR/CHF, EU Stoxx 50 Index Stalling as Investors Eye ECB, EU Summit

However, Lagarde acknowledges that negotiations may “take a few days [and] a few nights” as the “Frugal Four” - Austria, Sweden, Denmark and the Netherlands - remain critical of the proposed size and composition of the long-awaited fiscal stimulus package.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel confirmed Lagarde’s musings stating that although she had agreed on the “basic structure” of the fund with French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, there was still a “long way to go” to get a deal across the line.

With that in mind, approval of the recovery fund at the initial summit on July 17, may fuel regional risk assets and the growth-sensitive Euro.

On the other hand, the need for a second summit may notably sour market sentiment, resulting in a period of risk aversion and a subsequent depreciation of the EUR/CHF exchange rate and EU Stoxx 50 index.

EU Stoxx 50 Futures Daily Chart – Price Struggling at Post-Crisis High

EUR/CHF, EU Stoxx 50 Index Stalling as Investors Eye ECB, EU Summit

EU Stoxx 50 index daily chart created using TradingView

The EU Stoxx 50 successfully broke back above the 200-day moving average (3,345) yesterday, before key resistance at the post-crisis high (3,394) stifled bullish potential.

Although price continues to track within a constructive Schiff pitchfork, the RSI hints at a potential break lower as it fails to follow price to higher highs.

However, resistance-turned-support at the 200-DMA may serve as a launching pad for price as volume bursts above its 10-day

moving average, confirming the recent bullish surge.

A daily close above the June high (3,394) may carve a path for the EU Stoxx 50 to storm through resistance at the 78.6% Fibonacci (3,518), potentially pushing to test the January low (3,607).

Conversely, a break below the psychologically pivotal 3,300 level may ignite selling pressure, probably resulting in a sustained decline back to the 50-day moving average (3,150) and 38.2% Fibonacci (3,063).

EUR/CHF Daily Chart – Break of 200-DMA has Bulls Eyeing Yearly Highs

EUR/CHF, EU Stoxx 50 Index Stalling as Investors Eye ECB, EU Summit

EUR/CHF daily chart created using TradingView

EUR/CHF continues to serve as a proxy for regional market sentiment with the recent 5-day surge, from support at the 78.6% Fibonacci (1.0592) back above the 200-day moving average (1.0740), coinciding with improving fundamentals and the potential for further stimulus measures.

With the RSI surging towards overbought territory the path of least resistance remains to the upside as the Momentum indicator climbs to the highest levels since price set the yearly high in June (1.0915).

A period of consolidation looks likely as price confronts psychological resistance at the 1.08 level, with a short-term correction back to support at the 38.2% Fibonacci (1.0758) potentially preceding a sustained push to test the yearly high (1.0915).

Development of the RSI may provide an early indication of future direction, with the oscillator breaking into overbought territory probably igniting a push above the 23.6% Fibonacci (1.0818) and potentially signalling further upside for risk-sensitive assets.

EUR/CHF BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 3% 3% 3%
Weekly -3% 11% 1%
What does it mean for price action?
Get My Guide

-- Written by Daniel Moss, Analyst for DailyFX

Follow me on Twitter @DanielGMoss

Building Confidence in Trading
Building Confidence in Trading
Recommended by Daniel Moss
Building Confidence in Trading
Get My Guide

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.