We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: -0.31% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.43% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.48% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.00% 🇬🇧GBP: -1.03% 🇦🇺AUD: -1.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ST3oKR8Kyt
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.81% Gold: 0.37% Silver: -0.36% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/tCzfLiJU9V
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.35%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 67.31%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/gifjQE3Pk8
  • Germany affirmed 'AAA/A-1+', outlook stable by S&P - BBG
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.09% US 500: -0.02% Wall Street: -0.02% France 40: -0.25% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/7j8XbhvJFw
  • Trump: - Energy Secretary should look for other places to store oil - BBG
  • $GBPUSD finds resistance after crossing back below 1.2300 this morning https://t.co/QukmSLfko3
  • My portfolio is now up %600 https://t.co/Tb4Hz3zAyS
  • Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Coils After Loonie Breakdown https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2020/04/03/Canadian-Dollar-Price-Outlook-USD-CAD-Coils-Loonie-Digests-JS-US-to-Canadian-Dollar-Forecast.html https://t.co/4Yix4ZEXeH
  • President Trump says he is looking at infrastructure package, "will do it soon" Surely a key theme to watch in the week ahead for $SPX
Euro at Risk Ahead of German IFO Data and SNB Rate Decision

Euro at Risk Ahead of German IFO Data and SNB Rate Decision

2020-03-19 08:00:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst
Share:

EURO, EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, GERMAN IFO DATA – Talking Points

  • Euro selloff vs US Dollar may accelerate ahead of German IFO data and SNB rate decision
  • Coronavirus spreading throughout Europe at faster pace than mainland China. What now?
  • EUR/USD outlook bearish after pair broke critical support and is testing prior downtrend

ASIA-PACIFIC RECAP

Early into Asia’s Thursday trading session, ECB President Christine Lagarde announced a 750b Euro coronavirus stimulus package and reasserted the central bank’s commitment to the Euro. For seasoned traders, this kind of rhetoric echoed a similar message her predecessor Mario Draghi expressed when he said monetary authorities will do “whatever it takes” to save the Euro from the regional debt crisis in 2012.

The cycle-sensitive Australian and New Zealand Dollars fell while the Euro ticked higher following Ms. Lagarde’s comments. Jobs data from Australia crossed the wires but failed to elicit a notable market reaction as traders anxiously waited for the RBA rate decision. AUD fell after the central bank cut interest rates to another record-low at 0.25 percent and will target yields on three-year government bonds of around 0.25%”.

EURO AT RISK OF AGGRESSIVE LIQUIDATION AHEAD OF GERMAN IFO DATA

Preliminary German IFO data for March in the upcoming European session may amplify EUR/USD losses after ZEW data earlier this week sent the Euro tumbling below key support. While markets are rarely paying attention to economic indicators now amid blaring headlines from the coronavirus, German data – at least, for Europe – still has the capacity to move markets.

As the “steam engine of Europe”, the growth outlook for Germany has the potential to send a continental chilling effect if the region’s economic hub begins to sputter. IFO business climate, current assessment, and expectations components will be closely watched by traders, particularly the latter due to its forward-looking nature.

New coronavirus infections are now occurring mostly outside of mainland China with Europe become the new epicenter of the pandemic according to the World Health Organization (WHO). The European Central Bank Governing Council will be holding an emergency call on a response to the virus following France’ Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire saying monetary authorities should intervene quickly and “massively”.

Despite the coronavirus aid package, it is unclear how effective it will be in stimulating growth with rates in negative territory and member states being fiscally restricted by regional budgetary rules. Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel said the government will do everything required to help distressed companies as CDS spreads on ensuring sub-investment grade European corporate debt hover at Eurozone debt crisis-level highs.

Chart showing spread on credit default swaps

SWISS NATIONAL BANK RATE DECISION, OUTOOK

The Swiss National Bank is expected to hold interest rates at -0.75 percent following the release of their annual report which will likely carry gloomy undertones as part of the pessimistic zeitgeist permeating market mood. Consequently, this may pressure the EUR/CHF exchange rate which is already trading at a five-year low and less than four percent away from the plunge it experienced in January 2015.

EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EUR/USD has shattered below the 1.0981-1.0989 support range – dating back to the last two months of 2019 – and is now retesting the prior descending resistance channel (labelled as “Downtrend Beta”). The upcoming data may catalyze another aggressive selloff in EUR/USD and push the pair below the multi-year swing low at 1.0789 and lead to a resumption of the prior steep downtrend.

EUR/USD – Daily Chart

Chart showing EUR/USD

EUR/USD chart created using TradingView

EURO TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.