News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency:
  • Global stocks bounce back from recent pullback as key resistance levels lie ahead. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here:
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here:
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here:
  • Bitcoin (BTC) started the day on the front foot on the Twitter news before the latest China crypto ban hammered the market lower. Get your weekly crypto forecast from @nickcawley1 here:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • The US Dollar continues to push higher against ASEAN currencies after the FOMC rate decision. This leaves the USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR outlook mostly tilted higher. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The US Dollar seems to be back on the offensive against its major counterparts, pressuring EUR/USD and NZD/USD lower as USD/JPY consolidates. USD/CHF surges past key resistance. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The Japanese Yen remains in focus with strength potential on risk aversion themes to go along with weakness on themes around higher rates. Get your weekly $JPY technical forecast from @JStanleyFX here:
EUR/USD Braces For ZEW Data, Retail Sales as Virus Sours Sentiment

EUR/USD Braces For ZEW Data, Retail Sales as Virus Sours Sentiment

Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst

EUR/USD Outlook, Euro, US Dollar, German ZEW Data, US Retail Sales – Talking Points

  • Euro and US Dollar could fall if German ZEW data, US retail sales magnify recession fears
  • Donald Trump warned on Monday that the coronavirus may plunge economy into recession
  • EUR/USD is retesting critical inflection point after it failed to clear multi-month resistance


Asia-Pacific equities continue to trade in the red despite initial signs of a modest “risk-on” tilt in FX markets. The Japanese Yen was down against its G10 counterparts while the cycle-sensitive Australian and New Zealand Dollars ticked higher. Soured sentiment from Wall Street may echo into Asia as it wakes up after US President Donald Trump said the US may enter a recession due to the coronavirus disruption.


German ZEW survey and current expectations data for March is anticipated to show a dismal -30.0 print for both reports, significantly lower than the prior 8.7 and -15.7 releases, respectively. As the largest Eurozone economy, the impact of a German slowdown will likely dampen the region’s already-dismal outlook. The total number of coronavirus cases in Europe is now over 50,000.

Chart showing coronavirus

Source: Johns Hopkins CSSE.

In Germany, Chancellor Angela Merkel banned religious services involving large groups of people and ordered for its citizens to cancel any domestic or foreign holiday travel. In addition to schools being put into lockdown, bars, zoos and playgrounds were ordered to close and restaurants were put under strict operating hours.

A lot of countries – including Germany – have also issued broader travel restrictions to avoid cross-border contagion. Consequently, inter-regional supply chain disruptions will also likely hamper the region’s recovery as markets continue to show signs of stress. The iTraxx Crossover Index – used as a benchmark for calculating the risk premium on corporate debt via CDS– is at its highest point since the Eurozone debt crisis.


On Monday, US President Donald Trump warned that the coronavirus may plunge the world’s largest economy into a recession as businesses, schools and local governments initiate lockdown policies to contain the spread. Consequently, for businesses that require high density foot traffic – like restaurants, travel and tourism – this means dried revenue streams and laying off workers until the shutdown is lifted.

As a consumer-driven economy, this bodes poorly since a robust consumer has been able to keep a slowdown in manufacturing for over a year at bay. Advanced month-on-month retail sales for February are expected to show a 0.2 percent increase, slightly weaker than the prior print at 0.3 percent. A weaker-than-expected report could amplify panic and deepen the selloff in equity markets if the data supports Mr. Trump’s outlook.


EUR/USD is once again retesting a key inflection point (labelled as “Uptrend Alpha”) dating back to October of 2019 as it stalls just above critical support at 1.1091 (gold-dotted line). The upcoming economic statistics may cause EUR/USD to crack the familiar floor, opening the door to further liquidation if it is met with follow-through. Follow me on Twitter @ZabelinDimitri for more updates previewing the European session.

EUR/USD – Daily Chart

Chart showing EUR/USD

EUR/USD chart created using TradingView. If you are unable to see this image, click here.


--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.