News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.20% Silver: -0.83% Gold: -1.60% View the performance of all markets via
  • RT @EricBalchunas: The deed is done. Home free… $BITO
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.71%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 79.19%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • The past few weeks we have regularly mentioned that the SEC is likely to look kindly upon the few Bitcoin futures-based ETFs applications in its pending tray. Get your $btc market update from @nickcawley1 here:
  • Gold prices are poised for a breakout in the days ahead as XAU/USD contracts into longer-term uptrend support. Get your weekly gold forecast from @MBForex here:
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 1.11% US 500: 0.77% France 40: 0.18% FTSE 100: 0.10% Germany 30: 0.07% View the performance of all markets via
  • The main focus in the FX space has been the Japanese Yen which continues to go up in smoke across the board. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:
  • EUR/USD looking to close out the week above the key 1.16 level, now trading at 1.1603 $EURUSD
  • Free Bird was on the radio when I was getting my lunch. That is my 'an angle gets its wings' moment for the fall
  • Three Democrats urge House to pause overseas tax hike - Politico via BBG
US Dollar Outlook Bullish Ahead of Market-Moving Jobs Data

US Dollar Outlook Bullish Ahead of Market-Moving Jobs Data

Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst

US Dollar Outlook, Nonfarm Payrolls Preview, Fed Monetary Policy – Talking Points

  • USD could rise if NFP data beats forecasts and cools Fed rate cut bets
  • Despite rising number of coronavirus cases, markets appear indifferent
  • US Dollar index re-saddles January uptrend, but gains may be limited


Asia-Pacific equities were mixed with the anti-risk Japanese Yen showing modest gains against all its major counterparts while the cycle-sensitive Australian Dollar lagged. The New Zealand Dollar was unimpressed by the RBNZ 2 year inflation expectation result of 1.93 percent despite it being higher than the prior 1.80 percent figure.


The US Dollar may get a tailwind from better-than-expected nonfarm payroll data if the report beats the 160k forecast. The prior print of 145k was somewhat of a disappointment since it marked the weakest rate of job creation since May. While manufacturing has shown signs of recovery as part of a broader trend of global stabilization, a tight labor market and confident consumer are crucial columns supporting the US economy.

Chart showing US NFP

This data release in particular will be heavily scrutinized not only because of its ability to influence Fed monetary policy expectations but also due to next week’s docket involving Chairman Jerome Powell. The head of the central bank will be giving two congressional testimonies with the House Financial Services committee and the Senate Banking Committee. Learn more about other major event risks here!


The US Dollar index (DXY) has re-mounted the January uptrend after briefly breaking it and bouncing back from support at 97.35. However, upside gains may be relatively limited with negative RSI divergence showing fading upside momentum as it tests November 2019-highs. Going forward, traders will be keen to see if DXY breaks the steep trend and the severity of a potential selloff.

US Dollar Index – Daily Chart

Chart showing DXY

US Dollar index chart created using TradingView


--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.