News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇮🇩 Inflation Rate YoY (JUL) due at 04:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 1.45% Previous: 1.33%
  • (ASEAN Fundy) US Dollar Outlook: SGD, THB, IDR, PHP May Benefit on Slowing Covid Growth, Soft NFPs #USD #ASEAN $USDSGD $USDTHB $USDIDR $USDPHP
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here:
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.12% Silver: -0.30% Oil - US Crude: -1.23% View the performance of all markets via
  • RT @Yeap_IG: #IGMorningthoughts: - 89% of #SP500 companies outperformed earnings thus far, but only 0.2% gain in SP500 since start of earni…
  • Gold prices risk forming a "Double Top" pattern - #GOLD chart
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.14% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.17% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.17% View the performance of all markets via
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.87%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 74.32%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Keppel Corp is seeking to buy Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) for S$2.2 billion following the spin-off of its media assets, and plans to delist and privatize the company - BBG
  • S&P 500 Futures Lift Nikkei 225, Regulatory Risks Hit Chinese Stocks
EUR/USD Looks to US Retail Sales, Sentiment Data After ECB

EUR/USD Looks to US Retail Sales, Sentiment Data After ECB

Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst


  • EUR/USD may rise if US retail sales, sentiment data undershoot
  • Underperformance in reports could amplify Fed rate cut bets
  • Euro rose despite the ECB delivering rate cuts, reintroduced QE

Learn how to use political-risk analysis in your trading strategy!

EUR/USD may continue to rise if US retail sales and University of Michigan sentiment data underwhelm and magnify what are already-swollen Fed rate cut bets. Overnight index swaps are currently pricing in a 99 percent chance of a 25 basis-point cut next week, with a 45 percent probability of a 50bp cut in October. These publications could help boost EUR/USD’s recent climb, especially after the ECB rate decision.

Despite the European Central Bank delivering a 10 basis point rate cut – delving deeper into negative territory – and reintroducing QE, the Euro rose – as forecasted. Mario Draghi and Co. failed to meet the market’s ultra-dovish expectations, and this subsequently caused capital to flow into the Euro. It speaks volumes that despite the ECB delivering accommodative monetary policy, markets are still thirsty for more liquidity.

Now looking to the US, upcoming retail sales and sentiment data may amplify EUR/USD’s rise if it fuels Fed easing expectations. Despite eroding fundamentals, markets are choosing to ignore them and instead are focusing on the near-term pro-risk developments. Namely, a temporary cooling of trade tensions between the US and China have buoyed sentiment and put anti-risk assets at a discount and their counterparts at a premium.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD has re-entered a familiar descending resistance channel – which at times has acted as support – and could be poised to breach the upper crust. Upcoming US data may be a key catalyst for this break above. If the pair manage such a feat with follow-through, it could lead to a small rally in the pair. However, clearing familiar resistance may not give traders a reason to rejoice. The path upward is a daunting one.

Chart of the Day: EUR/USD Has a Long Way to go Before it Reaches February 2018 Highs

Chart showing EUR/USD

EUR/USD chart created using TradingView


--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.