News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Gold prices failed to retake the uptrend from the May 2019, March 2020, and March 2021 lows, and are nearing their monthly low. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/qkCdUJFtc2 https://t.co/ldbYm2U0vC
  • The US Dollar continues to push higher against ASEAN currencies after the FOMC rate decision. This leaves the USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR outlook mostly tilted higher. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/zn56iTXcpk https://t.co/NmQzIm39lj
  • Latest update on #Evergrande focusing on the Australian Dollar "Australian Dollar Eyes Evergrande as USD Bondholders Still Await Interest Payments" #AUD $AUDUSD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/09/24/Australian-Dollar-Eyes-Evergrande-as-USD-Bondholders-Still-Await-Interest-Payments.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/AAU8nMn0ou
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9Flsqcxo9 https://t.co/3bjMHrUZRJ
  • 🇹🇭 Balance of Trade (AUG) Actual: $-1.22B Expected: $0.97B Previous: $0.18B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-24
  • Heads Up:🇹🇭 Balance of Trade (AUG) due at 03:30 GMT (15min) Actual: $-1.22B Expected: $0.97B Previous: $0.18B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-24
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cC4v7H https://t.co/uhBNvCTHrW
  • Evergrande USD bondholders say have yet to receive interest due Thursday -BBG
  • The US Dollar seems to be back on the offensive against its major counterparts, pressuring EUR/USD and NZD/USD lower as USD/JPY consolidates. USD/CHF surges past key resistance. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/MrLGSp7FYa https://t.co/J0vSWHaADc
  • Gold prices gain as potential systemic risks out of China's Evergrande Group roil broader markets. Meanwhile, iron ore is ticking higher after a big drop on Monday as China steps up steelmaking curbs. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/l4kAWDrr7M https://t.co/nmP0MX8LGM
EURUSD Uptrend May be Accelerated by Powell Commentary, US Data

EURUSD Uptrend May be Accelerated by Powell Commentary, US Data

Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst

EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, FED MONETARY POLICY, OUTLOOK FOR US ECONOMY– TALKING POINTS

  • EURUSD may get boost from increased rate cut bets from Fed
  • US consumer confidence and Powell speech may pressure USD
  • And cause EURUSD to continue uptrend with an aim at 1.1424

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

APAC RECAP

During the Asia Pacific trading hours, the Japanese Yen and the New Zealand Dollar were outperforming their peers. Rising US-Iran tensions induced risk aversion and sent JPY higher, though the cycle sensitive NZD was insulated from the sour market sentiment. Better-than-expected trade data appeared to have been the culprit behind the Kiwi’s resilience, though it may soon fizzle out and succumb to the fate of its peers.

US CONFIDENCE DATA, POWELL’S OUTLOOK ON THE ECONOMY AND MONETARY POLICY

EURUSD’s uptrend may be accelerated if US consumer confidence comes in below the 131.0 estimate and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s economic outlook bolsters market expectations of rate cuts. Overnight index swaps are pricing in a 100 percent probability of a cut from the July meeting through year-end. However, rhetoric from the central bank has not indicated that policymakers are feeling dovish to that degree.

However, hawkish members of the Fed are finding it increasingly difficult to justify their position in light of US growth. Since February, economic activity out of the US has been broadly underperforming relative to economists’ expectations – signaling that analysts are over estimating the economy’s strength. Inflationary pressure has also been waning alongside a deterioration in global trade due to the US-China trade war.

Interested in the impact of the US-China trade war on APAC equities? Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @ZabelinDimitri.

There is the possibility that if the Chairman’s commentary is pessimistic enough, it could put a premium on liquidity and cause investors to flock to the US Dollar. However, this would fall out of line with the overall trend of EURUSD’s price action in light of increasing rate cut expectations caused by waning economic growth prospects. The pair’s recent rise has primarily been the result of a weaker Greenback.

EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

After breaking above 18-month descending resistance (red parallel channel), EURUSD has jumped almost two percent and is now approaching what appears to be a ceiling at 1.1424. Poor confidence data and dovish rhetoric from Powell could propel the pair beyond resistance, though the longer-term outlook suggests EURUSD will capitulate and slide lower as risk aversion causes investors to crowd the US Dollar.

CHART OF THE DAY: EURUSD AIMING AT 1.1424 RESISTANCE

Chart Showing EURUSD

FX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES