We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The $AUD has risen in anticipation of a deal Washington and Beijing. But the Australia-China trade relationship has not suffered much and may even have been helped by China’s spat with the US. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/An7h5X0Zcz https://t.co/Rn7mLbS1EF
  • How can traders avoid #FOMO in trading? Start by implementing a well-heeled plan taking only four hours per week. Get your insight from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vwUShQPc27 #tradingstyle https://t.co/0Wn4xBL0AY
  • Do you know which type of stock is the right investment for you? Stock types help investors decide on specific #stocks to trade or assist with valuation methods either fundamentally or technically. Learn more about stock types here: https://t.co/yO3JalkqUU https://t.co/RoNdExHAdt
  • The status of the US #dollar as the safe-haven asset of choice remains untouched and any weakness in the greenback is likely to be short-lived. Get your $USD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/LO2u38jpUT https://t.co/ctgCJSOeTH
  • #FTSE 100 testing key support as the index lacks a directional bias. #DAX reverses off channel top. Get your indices technical analysis from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/IHF2dgMfg9 https://t.co/2fMTFlOeTR
  • With knowledge of price action, traders can perform a wide range of technical analysis functions without the necessity of any indicators, including management of risk. Build on you knowledge of price action here: https://t.co/9hQA0bsYtt https://t.co/5KQowxuiBf
  • The term ‘Ichimoku,’ literally means ‘one glance,’ in Japanese. Ichimoku, or the one glance indicator, is considered to be a self-contained system in the fact that no additional indicators are necessary. Learn more about the 'one glance' indicator here: https://t.co/T7o7W9C0Ro https://t.co/7bhBfWvEkR
  • Support and resistance are the cornerstone of technical analysis, making it the foundation that you build your knowledge on. Build a stronger foundation here: https://t.co/yXLaRpl90I https://t.co/85JHunf2Xf
  • Many traders ask how a trading method that is 77 years old is applicable today. Learn about the Gartley pattern and see how you can incorporate it into your trading style here: https://t.co/2yPmGH0XvT https://t.co/rtqUKZSdn1
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/ywv7RVP9qY
Can China Outlast the US Through Painful Trade War Escalation?

Can China Outlast the US Through Painful Trade War Escalation?

2019-05-16 08:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
Share:

US-CHINA TRADE WAR, YEN, AUD, NZD, USD – TALKING POINTS:

  • Yen up, AUD and NZD down as US-China trade war fears return
  • S&P 500 index futures hint global markets back in risk-off mode
  • Can China outlast the US through tit-for-tat conflict escalation?

Currency markets were back in risk-off mode in Asia Pacific trade, with the defensively-minded Japanese Yen outperforming while the sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars fell. US-China trade war considerations took center stage again.

Regional markets were unable to capitalize on a positive lead from Wall Street, a move driven by hopeful developments on US auto tariff prospects and the USMCA trade pact. That’s after President Trump issued an executive order seemingly intended to punish Chinese telecoms like Huawei and ZTE Corp.

Markets appeared to read this as likely to complicate already frayed relationsbetween the world’s top-two economies, lowering the probability that the situation might get better before it gets worse. That has set an ominous for the remainder of the trading day.

US STOCK INDEX FUTURES WARN MARKET SENTIMENT IS SOURING ANEW

A relatively lackluster offering on the economic calendar seems likely to keep macro-level sentiment trends in the driver’s seat. Bellwether S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing convincingly lower, warning that APAC-session trading patterns have scope for follow-through.

Besides the Yen, the US Dollar may be well-supported if another wave of divestment across the risky asset universe puts a premium on the benchmark unit’s unrivaled liquidity. That has kept it impressively well-supported even as Fed rate hike bets have evaporated since late last year.

What are we trading? See the DailyFX team’s top trade ideas for 2019 and find out!

CHART OF THE DAY – WHO WILL BLINK FIRST AS US-CHINA TRADE WAR ESCALATES?

Can China Outlast the US Through Painful Trade War Escalation?

An oft-repeated sentiment among financial market participants is that the US economy is in a better position to withstand a prolonged trade war with China than the alternative. PMI survey data – a timely proxy for GDP growth – hints this may be somewhat misguided.

Since February, the data shows that US factory- and service-sector activity growth has slowed even as analogous measures tracking China have rebounded. This shows up in the government’s PMI statistics as well as the private-sector Caixin data series.

This comes at a time when Washington has escalated pressure on Beijing by increasing tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports from 10 to 25 percent. The Trump administration has also threatened to apply the higher levy to a further $300 billion in goods if a deal is not struck within a month.

At surface level, such actions seem to imply that the US sees itself in a position to force an agreement, presumably because it is better able to weather through a mutually damaging escalation. PMI figures warn this may be a miscalculation however, prolonging the spat and stoking longer-lasting risk aversion

FX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.