News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/MGy9OTXpUI
  • The Australian Dollar still remains vulnerable as it extends losses against its major counterparts. What is the road ahead for AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD and AUD/CAD? Get your AUD technical forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/ph20zFv4qS https://t.co/v4g9ATf4rr
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/De69mTseZN
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/G58J1dg6y3 https://t.co/D7AeTM5OpH
  • EUR/USD tumbled last week on the day of the ECB’s latest policy announcement, and that weakness is set to continue this week as a flood of major Eurozone economic statistics is released. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/9B4rJnzWuz https://t.co/ENF3xlkuyP
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqi8ZEe https://t.co/Gps2Xp32h9
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/hftCEho1lM
  • Gold price action is primed for volatility next week with the Fed decision on deck. How real yields and the US Dollar react to fresh guidance from Fed officials will be key for gold outlook. Get your weekly gold forecast from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/MzaIl7tPmZ
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/arxYmtQeUn https://t.co/rFlQtyQS81
  • Canadian Dollar snapped a three-week losing streak after USD/CAD stalled at key technical resistance. Get your CAD weekly forecast from @MBForex here: https://t.co/BPHuKecwnz https://t.co/73OmuCKfU9
British Pound at Key Chart Barrier Before Bank of England Meeting

British Pound at Key Chart Barrier Before Bank of England Meeting

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

TALKING POINTS – BANK OF ENGLAND, BRITISH POUND, YEN, US DOLLAR, GBP/JPY

  • Grim BOE may clash with hawkish shift in priced-in policy bets
  • Brexit uncertainty, global weakness may overshadow UK data
  • Downbeat tone may trigger broader risk aversion, boosting Yen

All eyes are on the Bank of England as traders brace for so-called “Super Thursday”, when it will issue a rate decision as well as issue minutes from the latest meeting of the policy-setting MPC committee and publish an updated quarterly Inflation Report (QIR). Governor Mark Carney will also hold a press conference to explain what all of this means for market participants.

A meaningful change in the official policy stance – be it the current setting of the benchmark Bank Rate or the forward guidance on offer – seems unlikely. Officials are likely to remain noncommittal as Brexit uncertainty continues to cloud the near- to medium-term outlook. The updated set of economic forecasts within the QIR report may have market-moving potential however.

UK economic news-flow has markedly improved relative to baseline forecasts over recent months. The markets have noticed: a meaningful hawkish shift in the priced-in 2019 policy path since late March now puts the probability of a rate hike before year-end at over 60 percent. The global growth backdrop has remained downbeat however, to say nothing of lingering political jitters at home and abroad.

This might set the stage for disappointment. The British Pound may fall if Mr Carney and company display a more downbeat disposition than investors are positioned for. Such an outturn may also bode ill for overall sentiment trends, stoking concerns about a downturn in the global business cycle and offering an outsized lift to the anti-risk Japanese Yen and US Dollar.

What are we trading? See the DailyFX team’s top trade ideas for 2019 and find out!

CHART OF THE DAY – GBP/JPY AT KEY RESISTANCE BEFORE BOE RATE DECISION

British Pound at Key Chart Barrier Before Bank of England Meeting

GBP/JPY seems like a natural catch-all place to look for the influence the BOE policy call on Sterling’s fortunes and that of market-wide risk appetite. Tellingly, prices put in a Shooting Star candlestick at near-term trend resistance just ahead of the announcement, implying indecision after an upswing and hinting that a turn lower may be in the cards.

Needless to say, such a move would fit in neatly within the foregoing fundamental analysis framework. Initial support is in the 143.79-144.84 congestion area, with a break below that confirmed on a daily closing basis opening the door for a test below the 142.00 figure. Alternatively, a breach above resistance – now at 145.87 – puts the now-familiar range top in the 148.57-149.72 zone back in focus.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES