Never miss a story from Ilya Spivak

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to Ilya Spivak

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

TALKING POINTS – BREXIT, BRITISH POUND, YEN, STOCKS, ISM, PMI, RETAIL SALES

  • Yen down, Aussie and NZ Dollars up as Chinese PMI boosts APAC markets
  • Risk-on mood may fizzle on soft economic data, another Brexit voting round
  • GBP/USD testing pivotal technical support level guiding the 2019 uptrend

Asia Pacific financial markets started the global trading week in an upbeat mood. The anti-risk Japanese Yen traded broadly lower while the sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars tracked regional stocks upward. Better-than-expected Chinese PMI data appeared to be catalyst at work.

A spirited rise in bellwether S&P 500 futures hints that more of the same is ahead. That may prove to be misleading as incoming data flow revives global slowdown gears while yet another round of indicative Brexit votes in the UK Parliament signals prolonged uncertainty.

On the data front, Eurozone and UK PMI surveys will be followed by US retail sales statistics and the manufacturing ISM report. A tendency to disappoint on recent macro news-flow suggests analysts’ models are overly rosy, setting the stage for soft results.

Meanwhile in Westminster, MPs will take up another assortment of Brexit options – from endorsing a no-deal divorce to a call for a second national referendum. This is an attempt to find an option able to attract a legislative majority after a third attempt at passing the government’s plan foundered.

At this stage, investors would probably welcome nearly any outcome (besides a “no-deal” approach) that introduces a degree of predictability into the equation. That seems like a tall order in the current environment, warning that another inconclusive outing might send markets scrambling.

What are we trading? See the DailyFX team’s top trade ideas for 2019 and find out!

CHART OF THE DAY – GBP/USD AT KEY SUPPORT AHEAD OF BREXIT VOTES

British Pound at Key Chart Level Before Still More Brexit Votes

GBP/USD is at a key technical juncture – testing support guiding it higher against the US Dollar since the beginning of the year – ahead of another round of Brexit-shaping voting. A daily close below this barrier, now at 1.3032, may signal resumption of the broader down move set from mid-April 2018. The next layer of immediate support is at 1.2773, the February 14 low. Alternatively, a move back above the minor inflection point at 1.3218 puts the double top in the 1.3350-81 zone back in focus.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter