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Pound May Shrug as US Dollar Gains on CPI Data, Euro at Risk

Pound May Shrug as US Dollar Gains on CPI Data, Euro at Risk

2019-02-13 07:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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TALKING POINTS – CPI, POUND, US DOLLAR, EURO, SPAIN, BOND AUCTION

  • UK inflation data unlikely to see strong response from British Pound
  • US Dollar might be sent higher as CPI data brightens Fed policy bets
  • Euro may fall on Spain budget vote, soft IP data and bond sale results

UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline inflation rate is expected to tick down to 1.9 percent on-year, the lowest level since January 2017. A soft result’s impact on the British Pound may be relatively limited however considering near-term BOE rate hike chances already appear negligible ahead of the March 29 Brexit deadline.

US DOLLAR MAY RISE IF CPI DATA TOPS FORECASTS

Analogous US CPI figures enters the spotlight later in the day. Here, the on-year price growth rate is seen cooling from 1.9 to 1.5 percent, marking the weakest reading since September 2016. US news-flow has palpably improved relative to forecasts recently, opening the door for an upside surprise. Leading PMI survey data bolsters the case for such an outcome.

An upbeat result might encourage priced-in Fed policy expectations to shift to a less-dovish setting. In fact, that process is already underway. Traders still lean against a rate hike in 2019 but the outlook now implied in Fed Funds futures puts the probability of one at the highest in a week. A higher CPI print may help this process along, boosting the US Dollar along the way.

EURO AT RISK ON INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DATA, BOND AUCTIONS, SPAIN

The Euro may succumb to renewed selling pressure following yesterday’s spirited recovery. Spain might trigger a snap election if the minority government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez comes up short in a budget vote due today. Meanwhile, soft Eurozone industrial production data and the results of bond auctions in Italy and Germany may sour investors’ appetite for EUR-denominated assets.

What are we trading? See the DailyFX team’s top trade ideas for 2019 and find out!

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EUROPEAN TRADING SESSION

Pound May Shrug as US Dollar Gains on CPI Data, Euro at Risk

** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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