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US Dollar May Rise as Jobs Data Revives Fed Rate Hike Bets

US Dollar May Rise as Jobs Data Revives Fed Rate Hike Bets

2018-12-07 07:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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TALKING POINTS – US DOLLAR, JOBS, FED, AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR, CHINA, TRADE WAR

  • US jobs report may signal data-driven Fed need not be dovish
  • Rebuilding FOMC rate hike bets may broadly boost US Dollar
  • Australian Dollar down as Chinese stocks lag in APAC trade

A quiet offering on the European data docket is likely to see traders looking ahead to November’s US jobs report for direction. An on-trend rise of 198k in nonfarm payrolls is expected, while the unemployment rate remains at a five-decade low of 3.7 percent and wage inflation at a nine-year high of 3.1 percent.

An outcome broadly in line with expectations may drive home the point that the Fed’s recent pivot toward a more data-dependent approach to policy-setting need not be dovish. That may boost recently sagging rate hike bets, sending the US Dollar higher against most of its major counterparts.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR DOWN WITH CHINESE STOCKS

The Australian Dollar underperformed in otherwise quiet Asia Pacific trade. The outsized decline echoed weakness in Chinese stocks. Bourses in Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen lagging despite an otherwise upbeat tone for equities elsewhere in the region.

That may reflect lingering worries following the arrest of Huawei CFO Wanzhou Meng yesterday on charges of violating US sanctions against Iran. Traders seem worried that the move might sour prospects for de-escalation in the trade war between Washington and Beijing.

China is Australia’s largest trading partner. A longer lasting trade war that weights on economic growth there bodes ill for performance in the latter country, keeping a lid on inflation and undermining prospects for RBA interest rate hikes. Tellingly, Australian bond yields fell as well.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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