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Yen, US Dollar May Rise as Commodity Currencies Fall with Stocks

Yen, US Dollar May Rise as Commodity Currencies Fall with Stocks

2018-10-29 06:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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TALKING POINTS – AUSSIE DOLLAR, YEN, STOCKS, S&P 500, WTO, PCE

  • Aussie, NZ Dollars rise as sentiment steadies in APAC trade
  • S&P 500 futures hint at renewed anti-risk liquidation ahead
  • WTO weighs US vs. China spat, US PCE inflation data due

The sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars narrowly outperformed as risk appetite cautiously firmed in Asia Pacific trade. Many of the region’s bellwether bourses edged higher, although a drop in mainland Chinese names tarnished overall performance.

These moves seem broadly consolidative, with traders capitalizing on a lull in heavy duty news flow to digest after the prior week’s bloodletting. Indeed, the catch-all MSCI Asia Pacific equity index capped the second-largest weekly drop this year with a foray to 19-month lows on Friday.

US DOLLAR, YEN MAY RISE AS RISK APPETITE FIZZLES ANEW

The “new normal” for financial markets may soon reassert itself however. S&P 500 futures are pointing conspicuously lower before the opening bell on Wall Street, hinting that another wave of selling across the risky asset spectrum is on the horizon.

On balance, that probably bodes well for the US Dollar as well as the Japanese Yen while commodity bloc currencies appear most vulnerable. An upside surprise echoing leading PMI survey data on the Fed’s favored PCE inflation gauge may stoke worries about aggressive tightening and amplify the risk-off push.

Also of note, the WTO will consider if it will pursue US allegations that China has violated the international body’s intellectual property rules. If an investigation is launched, that may be interpreted as marking escalation in the trade war between the world’s top-two economies.

See our forecasts for currencies, commodities and equities to learn what will drive prices in Q4!

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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