News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Nasdaq 100 Rebounds as Tapering Fears Ease, Hang Seng and ASX 200 Climb https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/06/22/Nasdaq-100-Rebounds-as-Tapering-Fears-Ease-Hang-Seng-and-ASX-200-Climb.html https://t.co/NZxRtj3rNa
  • ANZ Bank sees New Zealand house prices increasing by 0.7% in 2022 - BBG
  • Ever wonder if there are other chart types that can be sued for technical analysis? HLOC charts are discussed in the following article as well as their pros and cons. Learn more here: https://t.co/qV3c7a4YR3 https://t.co/9ZUHvkEw7R
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/aGz502atu0
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/OibiizbywE
  • Wall Street futures pointing slightly higher heading into morning Tuesday APAC trade: Dow Jones (+0.19%) S&P (+0.16%) Nasdaq (+0.11%) -BBG
  • Get our analysts’ view on the key fundamentals for Oil in Q2. Download now. https://t.co/bXrPHkaSCn https://t.co/3CjqFS8nZn
  • The Bullish Cup and Handle that has been brewing in $USDTHB for some time is now on the verge of breaking higher Pushing above key resistance (around 31.606) exposes the July 2020 high at 31.858 towards peaks from the same year Learn more here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2021/06/15/US-Dollar-Technical-Outlook-USDSGD-USDTHB-USDIDR-USDPHP.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/nugdcoHDNy
  • No change in interest rates is expected, but the central bank could adopt a more hawkish language in response to the deteriorating inflation outlook. Get your market update from @DColmanFX here:https://t.co/esLi7FLRNH https://t.co/t7RqVjIf9X
  • Fed's Williams: - It wouldn't be a problem if reverse repo activity increased - It is impossible to predict when the Fed will be able to reduce its bond-buying program
Euro May Fall Further on Dovish Shift in ECB Rhetoric

Euro May Fall Further on Dovish Shift in ECB Rhetoric

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

TALKING POINTS – EURO, ECB, ITALY, DRAGHI

  • ECB interest rate decision in focus, no core policy changes expected
  • Slowing growth, Italian turmoil may cast doubt on tightening outlook
  • Euro may fall as Draghi presser hints at dovish guidance adjustment

All eyes are on the ECB rate decision in European trading hours. A change is policy is not expected but the press conference with central bank President Mario Draghi following the policy announcement will be closely monitored for a forward guidance update.

As it stands, ECB plans to wind down QE asset purchases by the end of the year. Priced-in expectations implied in OIS rates suggest the first subsequent interest rate hike will come no sooner than September 2019. Euro volatility is likely if Mr Draghi’s remarks are seen to be altering that timeline.

On balance, a dovish adjustment seems more likely than the alternative. A recent rebound in inflation seems to have occurred for all the wrong reasons, reflecting a weaker currency rather than a pickup in economic activity. Indeed, PMI survey data suggests growth has slowed for most of this year.

Swelling political risk makes matters worse. The spread between Italian and benchmark German 10-year bond yields is near a five-year high as the recently installed anti-establishment government in Rome clashes with EU authorities over budget plans.

ECB tightening would only compound pressure on the debt-laden Italian economy. To the extent that this might spill over regionally and undercut bloc-wide growth, it may also derail policy normalization plans. With that in mind, Mr Draghi and company may be inspired to moderate their position somewhat.

This can take a variety of forms. For example, the bank may signal that the reinvestment of maturing QE assets may be longer-lasting than previously thought after asset purchases wind down. Any such pivot is likely to weigh on the Euro, sending it broadly lower against its G10 FX counterparts.

See our forecasts for currencies, commodities and equities to learn what will drive prices in Q4!

ASIA PACIFIC TRADING SESSION

Asia Pacific Trading Session Economic Calendar

EUROPEAN TRADING SESSION

European Trading Session Economic Calendar

** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES