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Crude Oil Prices May Bounce But Gains Unlikely to Prove Lasting

Crude Oil Prices May Bounce But Gains Unlikely to Prove Lasting

2018-10-25 06:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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CRUDE OIL & GOLD TALKING POINTS:

  • Crude oil price bounce flounders as sentiment sours once again
  • Gold prices edge higher as bond yields decline in risk-off trade
  • S&P 500 futures hint at cautious recovery in the markets’ mood

Crude oil prices attempted a tepid recovery Thursday following the prior session’s brutal selloff but renewed risk aversion derailed the advance, with the WTI benchmark tracking Wall Street lower to close within a hair of two-month lows. Gold prices edged up as the risk-off mood weighed on bond yields but meaningful follow-through failed to materialize as the US Dollar reclaimed support from haven-seeking flows, as expected.

GOLD MAY FALL AS OIL GAINS AMID RISK RECOVERY

Looking ahead, a rebound in futures tracking the bellwether S&P 500 index hints that a rebound in risk appetite may be in the cards. Gold prices may turn lower as yields rise against this backdrop, sapping the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets. Crude oil might manage a recovery in the meanwhile. The absence of a resolution on any of investors’ marquee worries is likely to make any such move short-lived however.

See our crude oil forecast to learn what is likely to drive price action through year-end!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices remain stuck below resistance in the 1235.24-41.64 area. A daily close above that exposes the 1260.80-66.44 region. Alternatively, a turn below resistance-turned-supportin the 1211.05-14.30 zone opens the door for a retest of the September 28 low at 1180.86.

Gold price chart - daily

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices are digesting losses after sliding through support set from early February. Sellers now target the 64.26-45 area, with a break below that targeting April’s swing low at 61.84. Alternatively, a bounce back above former support – now in the 66.84-68.71 area – opens the door for a retest of the 70.05-26 region. Recent losses are poised to make good on longer-term topping cues but confirmation is still pending.

Crude oil price chart - daily

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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