News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/Ll9NIE79mb
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.65% Gold: 0.18% Oil - US Crude: -0.60% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/l5DYPYnqNL
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.84% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.30% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.17% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.04% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.07% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/bj4qDvAPDE
  • US Dollar at the Mercy of Economic Data, ADP Jobs Report in View - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2021/08/04/US-Dollar-at-the-Mercy-of-Economic-Data-ADP-Jobs-Report-in-View.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #Dollar #ADP #Fed #EURUSD https://t.co/ioMIim3jia
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.78% France 40: 0.52% FTSE 100: 0.34% US 500: -0.08% Wall Street: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/eR5bjv9FSY
  • Forex sentiment analysis can be a useful tool to help traders understand and act on price behavior. Learn how to get the most out of understanding trader sentiment here: https://t.co/rJznrXkcYz https://t.co/GsrgNzZU8h
  • AUD/JPY IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long AUD/JPY for the first time since Jul 22, 2021 when AUD/JPY traded near 81.31. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to AUD/JPY weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/dB1g2SisC5
  • 💶 Retail Sales YoY (JUN) Actual: 5% Expected: 4.5% Previous: 8.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-04
  • Heads Up:💶 Retail Sales YoY (JUN) due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 4.5% Previous: 9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-04
  • 🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Final (JUL) Actual: 59.6 Expected: 57.8 Previous: 62.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-04
US Dollar May Celebrate Even a Status Quo Fed Policy Stance

US Dollar May Celebrate Even a Status Quo Fed Policy Stance

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

TALKING POINTS – FOMC, US DOLLAR, NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR, RBNZ, AUSSIE DOLLAR, CHINA

  • US Dollar may celebrate even a status quo FOMC policy posture
  • New Zealand Dollar up on data, follow-through depends on RBNZ
  • Aussie Dollar gains as MSCI angles to boost China index weight

A quiet offering on the European data docket puts the FOMC rate decision firmly in the spotlight. Rate hikes are convincingly priced in for this and December’s conclave, making the outlook for 2019 the central source of speculation. Markets have accounted for two rate increases next year while June’s central bank forecast narrowly called for three.

Leading PMI survey data suggests the pace of US growth has slowed and figures from Citigroup argue that incoming economic news-flow has increasingly deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts since mid-year. That might limit scope for further steepening in official tightening projections, seemingly leaving the US Dollar without fresh fodder for upside momentum.

Still, the greenback retreated from mid-August highs alongside US Treasury bonds. That seems to imply that the move reflects ebbing haven demand amid easing risk aversion following a burst of kneejerk volatility in emerging market assets. With that in mind, even a status quo Fed stance may offer USD a lifeline if only because it reminds traders of its swelling yield advantage against G10 FX alternatives.

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in Asia Pacific trade, lifted in the wake of data showing an improvement in business confidence. Scope for follow-through may be limited however if the upcoming RBNZ policy announcement strikes a dovish tone once again. As it stands, rate futures are not expecting a rate increase until mid-2020.

The Australian Dollar also traded higher as stocks in China launched a spirited recovery. The Aussie is frequently responsive to swings in investors’ risk appetite. This can be doubly influential when developments in China are at the forefront. The East Asian giant is Australia’s largest trading partner, making the currency a frequent proxy for developments there.

In this case, the surge came as indexing giant MSCI Inc said it was considering lifting the weight cap on yuan-denominated stocks from 5 to 20 percent in its market benchmarks in 2019. Names listed on the tech-centric ChiNext would also become eligible for inclusion next year, and mid-cap shares in 2020. By way of context, MSCI says close to $2 trillion in assets is anchored to its emerging-market index.

See our study on the history of trade wars to learn how it might influence financial markets!

ASIA PACIFIC TRADING SESSION

Asia Pacific Trading Session Economic Calendar

EUROPEAN TRADING SESSION

European Trading Session Economic Calendar

** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES