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US Dollar May Rise as Fed Rate Hike Outlook Continues to Swell

US Dollar May Rise as Fed Rate Hike Outlook Continues to Swell

2018-09-12 06:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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TALKING POINTS – US DOLLAR, PPI, YEN, AUSSIE DOLLAR, TRADE WAR

  • US Dollar may rise if PPI, Beige Book boost Fed rate hike bets
  • Yen up, Aussie Dollar down as sentiment sours in APAC trading
  • Stock index futures flat, arguing against risk-off follow-through

A lackluster offering on the European data docket may see investors looking ahead the US PPI report. It is expected to show that wholesale inflation slowed in August, with the headline year-on-year rate slipping from 3.3 to 3.2 percent. Last month’s unexpected jump in wage growth might set the stage for an upside surprise however, stoking a hawkish shift in the Fed policy outlook.

A broadly upbeat tone in the Fed Beige Book survey of regional economic might help, pushing up the priced-in probability of a rate hike in December following this month’s nearly certain increase. As it stands, markets put the likelihood of such an outcome at 76.3 percent, leaving some room for repositioning reflecting greater conviction to drive the US Dollar upward.

The sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollars suffered while the perennially anti-risk Japanese Yen outperformed as investors’ mood soured in Asia Pacific trade. The greenback also found support in haven-seeking flows. The WTO said China asked for it to approve retaliatory trade measures against the US, stoking concerns about trade war escalation.

The case for follow-through seems suspect however. Futures tracking the bellwether FTSE 100 and S&P 500 stock indexes are trading conspicuously flat before London and New York come online, putting the prevailing setting for market-wide sentiment trends at “neutral”. A plethora of lingering worries remains however – from trade wars to emerging market instability – and may yet reboot risk aversion.

See our study on the history of trade wars to learn how it might influence financial markets!

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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