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US Dollar May Rise if GDP Update Brings Fed Outlook Back in Focus

US Dollar May Rise if GDP Update Brings Fed Outlook Back in Focus

2018-08-29 06:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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TALKING POINTS – US DOLLAR, GDP, FED, CANADIAN DOLLAR, NAFTA

  • US Dollar may rise if Q2 GDP update puts Fed outlook back in focus
  • Forecasts put growth at strongest in 4 years despite small downgrade
  • Canadian Dollar higher as hopes for NAFTA deal continue to grow

The European economic calendar is conspicuously threadbare yet again, putting the spotlight on revised second-quarter US GDP figures. The annualized economic growth rate is expected to be adjusted a bit lower, from 4.1 to 4 percent.

The outcome would still mark the strongest performance in four years, keeping the case for continued Fed interest rate hikes firmly intact. An increase in September is all but fully priced in at this point and the probability of another one in December now stands at 65.7 percent.

In fact, the GDP print may remind investors that the Fed stands alone among its G10 counterparts in the degree of tightening it is prepared to deliver through year-end and probably in 2019 as well. That may boost the US Dollar, which has struggled with the overlapping influence of policy- and risk-based cues recently.

The Canadian Dollar outperformed in otherwise muted Asia Pacific trade. That follows a report form Globe and Mail suggesting Ottawa is ready to make concessions in a bid to join the renegotiated NAFTA trade pact following a reported breakthrough in talks between the US and Mexico.

See our study on the history of trade wars to learn how it might influence financial markets!

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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