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Euro May Rise Regardless of Q2 GDP Results But Gains Look Shaky

Euro May Rise Regardless of Q2 GDP Results But Gains Look Shaky

2018-08-14 06:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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TALKING POINTS – EURO, TURKEY, EMERGING MARKETS, AUSSIE DOLLAR, YEN

  • Euro to look past German GDP data, may rise as risk appetite firms
  • Sentiment might improve further but headline risk remains elevated
  • China a notable weak spot in otherwise upbeat Asia Pacific session

German GDP data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Output growth is expected to have accelerated in the second quarter, with an increase of 0.4 percent marking the first pickup in a year. Eurozone news-flow has improved relative to forecasts in recent months, opening the door for an upside surprise. With ECB policy on autopilot however, that may do little for the Euro.

Instead, the single currency will probably remain focused on worries about contagion from turmoil in Turkey. An emergency liquidity boost from the central bank in Ankara calmed investors’ nerves somewhat, halting its slide against the US Dollar (as expected). FTSE 100 and S&P 500 futures hint risk appetite will continue to recover in the hours ahead, which might translate into a more substantive recovery.

A rosier mood was already on display in the Asia Pacific session. The anti-risk Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc traded broadly lower while the sentiment-geared Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars advanced alongside most regional share prices. Bourses in China were a notable exception following a round of broadly disappointing economic data.

With that said, headline sensitivity is almost certainly still elevated. A troubling soundbite from Turkey, Russia or any of emerging market trouble spots flagged in recent days – notably India and South Africa – may send asset prices into a tailspin once again. Indeed, any near-term recovery might be better suited as an opportunity to bet against risk rather than the alternative.

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ASIA PACIFIC TRADING SESSION

Euro May Rise Regardless of Q2 GDP Results But Gains Look Shaky

EUROPEAN TRADING SESSION

European Trading Session Economic Calendar

** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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