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US Dollar May Rise as Trump, Junker Dial Down Trade War

US Dollar May Rise as Trump, Junker Dial Down Trade War

2018-07-25 06:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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TALKING POINTS – TRUMP, JUNKER, TARIFFS, US DOLLAR, EURO, YEN

  • US Dollar may rise as Trump, Junker reach deal on auto import tariffs
  • Japanese Yen at risk as easing trade war worries bolster risk appetite
  • Australian Dollar lower as soft CPI data weighs on RBA rates outlook

A dull offering of European and US economic data is likely to see currency markets focused on a meeting between Donald Trump and Jean-Claude Junker. The European Commission president arrives stateside on a mission to dissuade the White House from moving forward with an increase in tariffs on auto imports. Motor vehicles are a leading export commodity and the US is the biggest overseas market for the EU.

US Department of Commerce hearings revealed the duties are deeply unpopular domestically last week. That is hardly surprising: the US auto industry’s supply and production chains extend beyond national borders so the tariffs would hurt domestic producers alongside foreign ones. Upsetting a key constituency before midterm elections seems unwise, so Mr Trump is probably keen to scrap the duties.

Still, he will want to extract the maximum price for a concession from the visiting EU delegation. This might well explain the show of strength intended in last week’s jawboning lower of the US Dollar. For his part, the wily Mr Junker no doubt understands the US President’s desire to cast himself as a shrewd deal-maker and his appreciation for a splashy photo op.

On balance, that seems to set the stage for a compromise. Such a result is likely to weigh on the anti-risk Japanese Yen easing trade war tensions buoy investors’ spirits. It may likewise pave the way higher for the US Dollar as the threat of competitive devaluation is dialed down. The Euro may struggle to capitalize however, with investors opting against directional commitment before the upcoming ECB rate decision.

The Australian Dollar underperformed in otherwise quiet Asia Pacific trade. The currency lost ground against all of its G10 FX counterparts after second-quarter CPI data fell short of forecasts, putting the on-year inflation rate at 2.1 percent. The move tracked a parallel drop in local bond yields, suggesting the report cooled RBA interest rate hike bets.

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** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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