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Euro May Extend Decline on Dovish Draghi Comments

Euro May Extend Decline on Dovish Draghi Comments

2018-05-16 06:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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TALKING POINTS – EURO, ECB, DRAGHI, AUSSIE DOLLAR, WAGES, RBA

  • Euro may fall on dovish remarks from ECB President Draghi
  • Australian Dollar down after wage growth data disappoints
  • US Dollar retraced lower vs. most majors after explosive rally

A speech from ECB President Mario Draghi is in focus in European trading hours. He mighthint that a string of economic data disappointments since the beginning of the year as well as base effects from last year’s breakneck Eurorally are worrying enough to push back stimulus withdrawal.

Earlier in the week, Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau downplayed the importance of ending QE in September versus December. The markets saw this as confirming that tightening is imminent, boosting the single currency. On the contrary, Villeroy may have been foreshadowing a delay.

If Mr Draghi offers a dovish narrative, the Euro may extend a drop that brought it to a four-month low yesterday. The move may find additional fodder in revised Eurozone CPI data, which is expected to confirm that headline inflation fell to 1.2 percent last month.

The markets may already be anticipating as much. The common unit stood out as one of only two currencies that didn’t manage a rebound against the US Dollar in Asia Pacific trade following the greenback’s explosive gains in the prior session.

The other laggard was the Australian Dollar. It fell alongside local bond yields after a slight undershoot on quarterly wage growth data growth was seemingly interpreted to mean an RBA interest rate hike may be delayed further. Market pricing implies an increase will come no sooner than March 2019.

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--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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