News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Williams Speech due at 19:00 GMT (15min)
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 1.10% Silver: 0.64% Oil - US Crude: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via
  • what a day for stonks $SPX $SPY judging by the way $ES started trading when futes opened last night, I thought we'd be dealing with a nasty situation Not so, ~90 handles of rip off the lows Price now testing resistance at the trendline drawn from pandemic lows
  • USD overextended, support on pullbacks expected.Tough hurdles ahead on EUR/USD recovery. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 86.42%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 71.87%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 1.80% US 500: 1.40% FTSE 100: 0.33% France 40: 0.30% Germany 30: 0.26% View the performance of all markets via
  • Here is the $DXY Dollar Index overlaid with an inverted Nasdaq 100 and the 20-day rolling correlation below it. Is this just a 'risk asset' vs 'safe haven' relationship or are the underlying fundamental considerations adding up to something that looks like it?
  • Technical Levels: US #Dollar, Euro, #Sterling, #Loonie, #Gold & #Bitcoin -
  • NY Fed accepts $765.1 billion in reverse repo operations $USD $DXY
  • Amazon’s annual Prime Day event runs from June 21 to June 22 this year The retailer has created an event that sees its sales surpass Black Friday and Cyber Monday combined. Get your market update from @PeterHanksFX here:
Euro Casts Wary Eye on GDP, US Dollar May Retreat on Steady Fed

Euro Casts Wary Eye on GDP, US Dollar May Retreat on Steady Fed

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC


  • Euro may fall further as soft Q1 GDP bolsters dovish ECB outlook shift
  • US Dollar may pull back as gradualist Fed clashes with hawkish markets
  • Speculative positioning shows ample scope for longer-term USD gains

Eurozone GDP figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. A slowdown is expected in the first quarter, with output gain of 0.4 percent marking the smallest increase since the three months to September 2016. The on-year trend growth rate is expected to tick down for the first time in two years, registering at 2.5 percent.

Realized economic data outcomes from the single currency area have increasingly underperformed relative to consensus forecasts since the beginning of the year. That suggests analysts’ models are systematically overestimating the economy’s vigor, opening the door for a downside surprise on today’s release. That may encourage the recent dovish shift in ECB policy bets, weighing on the Euro.

The spotlight then turns to the Fed rate decision. No formal policy change is expected, though it quite telling of the markets’ hawkish disposition that the probability of a hike sits at a substantial 34 percent despite this being a “second tier” announcement without a forecast update or a presser. Investors will be most interested in the accompanying statement, looking for language ratifying the upshift in tightening bets.

The US Dollar set a 2018 high in the run-up to the Fed announcement having added 4.5 percent against an average of its top counterparts in a mere two weeks. A string of broadly supportive economic data outcomes and a hawkish rhetorical turn from previously dovish officials such as Governor Lael Brainard appears to have catalyzed the move.

The rally’s breakneck speed now naturally raises questions about scope for near-term continuation. Anything short of signaling the emergence of a four-hike consensus for this year on the rate-setting FOMC committee seems too impotent to sustain momentum. The Fed’s preference for gradualism probably won’t allow such excess, which may deflate the hawks’ more fanciful hopes and send USD lower.

Still, data from the CFTC showed that large speculators remained collectively net-short on the greenback as of a week ago. That is admittedly dated, but even a subsequent shift to a neutral or slightly net-long stance leaves a lot of room to rebuild exposure considering the heady readings that prevailed just 12 months ago. That might translate into a near-term pullback but ultimately precede a steadier long-term rise.

See our quarterly FX market forecasts to learn what will drive prices through mid-year!


Euro Casts Wary Eye on GDP, US Dollar May Retreat on Steady Fed


Euro Casts Wary Eye on GDP, US Dollar May Retreat on Steady Fed

** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here.


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.