News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The New Zealand Dollar looks poised to extend its push higher against its haven-associated counterparts on robust economic data and a less dovish stance from the RBNZ. Get your $NZD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/vytr4OR1Jy https://t.co/ZcxEUWIm8O
  • It seems the markets are riding high, but risk is always lurking around the corner. Consider your escape plan before you find yourself in collapsing market. What are the top havens for different conditions in 2020? Find out from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/1oeXWEsJkb https://t.co/x8uyOHLtgE
  • The Swiss Franc may continue higher against the US Dollar as technical pressure favors USD/CHF bears..Get your $USDCHF market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/yqJbbhAWiu https://t.co/CaMR0Vqd1m
  • The US Dollar lost ground to most ASEAN currencies as Emerging Market assets climbed despite US economic woes. USD/INR is eyeing third-quarter Indian GDP at the end of the week. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/urDN2b5Nwd https://t.co/toSDbVZCSi
  • The global stock market can be categorized into specific groups or ‘stock market sectors’. Organizing the vast number of stocks in this way helps traders to view assets in a more manageable way. Get your stock market sectors basics here: https://t.co/5gbiHmY8yl https://t.co/mQ6ty8Yalv
  • The Euro looks poised to continue gaining ground against haven-associated currencies and may reverse higher against the British Pound in the near term. Get your #Euro market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/oRIHju7ZzK https://t.co/dIEErVzWEY
  • Gold and silver prices have come under significant pressure recently. However, this correction lower could prove short-lived as price analysis hints at a reversal higher. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/K1qL0fsGwy https://t.co/tRfjlN6X22
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones and crude oil prices have recently made critical advances to the upside. Is retail positioning supporting the case for further upside momentum?https://t.co/rfA2TsBctB https://t.co/SNoOEVLXvA
  • An improving economic backdrop is bolstering crude oil prices and in turn, the Canadian Dollar. Still, the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar continues to move higher. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/NJ683bZKpe https://t.co/zt3bYddjZ6
  • Gold Price Forecast: Dovish FOMC Could Underpin Bullion Ahead of NFP - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/chf/2020/11/27/Gold-Price-Forecast-Dovish-FOMC-Could-Underpin-Bullion-Ahead-of-NFP.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr #Gold #XAUUSD $GOLD $GLD https://t.co/N9ChZOqSdy
Euro May Fall as the ECB Disappoints, Trump to Trigger Tariffs

Euro May Fall as the ECB Disappoints, Trump to Trigger Tariffs

2018-03-08 05:30:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points:

  • All eyes on ECB policy announcement in European trading hours
  • Euro may decline as Draghi disappoints bets on QE unwind signal
  • Canadian Dollar gains as White House hints at tariff exemptions

All eyes are on the ECB monetary policy decision in European trading hours. While no changes are expected this time around, financial markets are looking for official rhetoric to signal that the end of the QE asset purchase scheme is on the horizon.

The current €30 billion/month version expires in September. It may be recast at a slower pace as investors are gradually weaned off policy support. A more aggressive path would see this “tapering” occur sooner, such that September marks the program’s termination.

In fact, it seems most likely that no such hawkish policy pivot will materialize. The ECB surely appreciates that last year’s surging Euro will now translate into lower inflation. It may also be acutely aware that any tightening signal would send the currency still higher, undermining its objectives further.

With that in mind, President Mario Draghi and company might be setting up the markets for a disappointment. If so, rhetoric suggesting the Governing Council is in no hurry to dial back stimulus coupled with a downgrade of official inflation forecasts will probably prove painful for the single currency.

Commodity bloc currencies outperformed in otherwise quiet Asia Pacific trade, with the Canadian Dollar leading the way higher. The move came as regional share prices recovered from yesterday’s selloff, echoing a late-day recovery in risk appetite on Wall Street.

The newswires attributed the burst of optimism to comments from the White House hinting that President Trump might exclude NAFTA countries from the proposed hike in steel and aluminum tariffs. Reports suggest these will be activated by 20:30 GMT today.

That seems like a paltry gesture, particularly as EU officials threaten retaliation and Chinese policymakers are vocally displeased. This may metastasize into an all-out trade war, an outcome that might severely hurt global growth. The markets’ sensitivity to headline risk still made for a reversal though (as expected).

Having trouble with your strategy? See the #1 mistake that traders make and learn how to avoid it!

Asia Pacific Trading Session

Euro May Fall as the ECB Disappoints, Trump to Trigger Tariffs

European Trading Session

Euro May Fall as the ECB Disappoints, Trump to Trigger Tariffs

** All times listed in GMT. See the full economic calendar here.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES