Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Select

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar Events

0

Notify me about

Live Webinar Events
Economic Calendar Events

H

High

M

Medium

L

Low
More View More
US Dollar May Fall Even as Jobs Data Shows Improvement

US Dollar May Fall Even as Jobs Data Shows Improvement

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar may counterintuitively fall on robust employment data
  • Aussie, NZ Dollars fall as risk appetite sours in Asia Pacific trade
  • Yen down after Bank of Japan steps up the pace of bond purchases

The US Dollar corrected higher following yesterday’s selloff. All eyes now turn to January’s Employment data, which is expected to show that job creation accelerated last month. Consensus forecasts envision an 180,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls, a notable improvement from the 148,000 recorded in the prior month. The jobless rate is seen holding unchanged at 4.1 percent, matching a 17-year low.

What’s more, the pace of wage inflation is seen rising to the 2.6 percent, the highest in four months. That might bolster cautiously optimistic Fed rhetoric citing firming price growth expectations in the policy statement released earlier this week, boosting rate hike bets. Critically, none of this may be enough to offer meaningful support to the beleaguered greenback.

A disconnect has emerged: the US currency has fallen even as the priced-in Fed tightening path has steepened. That seems to reflect a focus on other central banks’ increasing capacity to play catch-up to the FOMC’s hawkish lead against a backdrop of broadly improving global growth. Strong US labor-market data may be read as broadly supportive of this narrative, sending the benchmark unit counter-intuitively lower.

The sentiment-sensitive Australian and New Zealand Dollars plunged alongside S&P 500 futures as risk aversion gripped financial markets in Asia Pacific trade. Regional shares lost close to 0.6 percent on average. The Japanese Yen likewise fell despite the risk-off environment after the Bank of Japan announced its first unlimited fixed-rate repo operation since July.

Check out our free guide to see DailyFX analysts’ top trading ideas for 2018 !

Asia Session

European Session

** All times listed in GMT. See the full DailyFX economic calendar here.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES