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Euro May Rise as Draghi Speaks, US Dollar Eyes Fed Beige Book

Euro May Rise as Draghi Speaks, US Dollar Eyes Fed Beige Book

2017-10-18 04:19:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Euro may rise if ECB’s Draghi speaks to monetary stimulus limitations
  • US Dollar looking to Fed Beige Book survey to fuel continued recovery
  • Canadian Dollar gains on NAFTA talks extension, NZ Dollar weakens

A speech form ECB President Mario Draghi headlines an otherwise lackluster offering on the European economic calendar. The central bank chief is due to speak about “structural reforms in the Euro area” but markets will look for comments hinting at the fate of QE asset purchases ahead of next week’s policy meeting. Emphasis on the limitations of monetary stimulus may boost the Euro.

Later in the day, the Fed’s Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions enters the spotlight. The US Dollar may continue to push having launched a spirited recovery at the beginning of the week if the document points to broadly firming price growth, paving the way for a December rate increase. Futures markets hint the probability of an increase before year-end is now 83.6 percent, the highest in over two years.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in Asia Pacific trade. The currency fell alongside local bond yields, hinting that a dovish shift in RBNZ policy bets as behind the move. A single catalyst for the move was not readily apparent but political uncertainty may have played a part as markets continue to wait for NZ First party leader Winston Peters to declare his allegiance to either incumbent National or opposition Labour party.

Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar traded higher after a contentious round of negotiations updating the NAFTA free trade accord was extended beyond the year-end 2017 deadline. Traders were seemingly worried that hardline demands from the US delegation would derail talks with representatives of Canada and Mexico. Within that context, prolonging the process was treated as a relatively positive development.

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Asia Session

Euro May Rise as Draghi Speaks, US Dollar Eyes Fed Beige Book

European Session

Euro May Rise as Draghi Speaks, US Dollar Eyes Fed Beige Book

** All times listed in GMT. See the full DailyFX economic calendar here.

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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